01 · Fundamental Driver
Contact creates points
4.5 FTA · 10.9 PPG — Jones averaged 4.5 free-throw attempts and 10.9 points in the eight-game table. Getting to the stripe supplies scoring opportunities that do not require a heavy jump-shot workload.
Posted Line Trajectory: Trending Up (+2.0 over 6 games)Free Dossier Release
Tre Jones Points Prop (Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls, ): Fair Line 11.5 (-223) vs 11.5 Market
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
BetMGM: Over 9.5 (-165)Modeled Edge: +26.6% EV · Fair Value 11.5 (-223)
- Pick & Release Line
- OVER 11.5 (+105)
- ProphetX
- Modeled Fair Line
- 11.5
- 0.0 Pt Delta
- Modeled Fair Price
- -223
- +26.6% EV
- Posted Line Drift
- 9.5 → 11.5 (+2.0)
- Last 6 Active Games
- Matchup (CT)
- PHI @ CHI
- NBA Props Lane CLV
- 75 / 11 / 39
- Beat / Tied / Lost
Sportsbook Posted Points Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (11.5 / -223)
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 26 to Nov 8), sportsbooks adjusted Tre Jones's posted points line upward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 9.5 to 11.5 (+2.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for PHI @ CHI is 11.5 (-223).
6-Game Posted Points Ledger (Tre Jones)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI @ BOS | 9.5 (-105) | — | 8 | Under | |
| NYK @ CHI | 8.5 (-104) | -1.0 | 11 | Over | |
| CHI @ BOS | 8.5 (+100) | 0.0 | 12 | Over | |
| CHI @ PHI | 8.5 (-115) | 0.0 | 8 | Under | |
| CHI @ NYK | 9.5 (+104) | +1.0 | 14 | Over | |
| PHI @ CHI | 11.5 (+105) | +2.0 | — | Fair 11.5 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 6 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Balanced Pricing6-Game Window
Tre Jones Points Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Book step adjustment (+2.0) tracks actual window production (+1.1).
Unpriced Book Step-Lag-0.9Max Single-Game Book Step: +2.0
- Window Open Line
- 9.5
- Current Posted Line
- 11.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- +2.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 10.6
- Actual Output Delta
- +1.1
- Modeled Fair Value
- 11.5 (-223)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 · @ BOS | 9.5 | — | 8 | -1.5 |
| Oct 28 · vs NYK | 8.5 | -1.0 | 11 | +2.5 |
| Oct 30 · @ BOS | 8.5 | 0.0 | 12 | +3.5 |
| Nov 2 · @ PHI | 8.5 | 0.0 | 8 | -0.5 |
| Nov 4 · @ NYK | 9.5 | +1.0 | 14 | +4.5 |
| Nov 8 · vs PHI | 11.5 | +2.0 | — | — |
WagerBird Write-Up · Tre Jones Points (Over 11.5)
Free Dossier ReleaseWrite-Up Thesis
Jones's foul-line production lets him reach a modest scoring threshold without needing starter minutes.
02 · Fundamental Driver
Bench minutes can be enough
18.3 MPG · 14 PTS IN 18 MIN LAST GAME — His season playing time was 18.3 minutes per game, and the latest box contained 14 points in 18 minutes. Productive short stints allow him to accumulate points before the starting guards return.
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
A brief bench assignment can leave Jones without enough possessions to generate his usual scoring chances. A slow first half or drives that end without foul calls would weaken his most efficient route to points.
Settlement Rule: CASHES TRE JONES OVER 9.5 POINTS WITH 10 OR MORE; NO PUSH ON THE HALF.
WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftPHI @ CHI · Points
PHI @ CHI · Chicago Bulls WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) ()
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Chicago Bulls's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
CHI Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 3 of 6 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted UpTeam Tide Shift (Bullish): Market Expanding Core-6 Scoring Ceiling
Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)
+3.6 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 118.1 vs. 114.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86.0 | 72.8% | 118.1 | 114.5 (-110) | +3.6 |
Compare CHI Team Total Partner Quotes:
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Caleb Wilson CHI · Prev 19.5 (+1.0) | 20.5 | 17.3% | 17.9%(+0.6% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#2 Norman Powell CHI · Prev 19.5 (-1.0) | 18.5 | 16.6% | 16.2%(-0.4% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Usage Transfer | |
#3 Matas Buzelis CHI · Prev 12.5 (+1.0) | 13.5 | 11.5% | 11.8%(+0.3% vs Hist) | -1.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#4 Josh Giddey CHI · Prev 11.5 (0.0) | 11.5 | 9.6% | 10.0%(+0.4% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Steady Share | |
#5 Tre Jones CHI · Prev 9.5 (+2.0) | 11.5 | 9.2% | 10.0%(+0.8% vs Hist) | +2.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#6 Jalen Smith CHI · Prev 11.5 (-1.0) | 10.5 | 8.6% | 9.2%(+0.6% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Usage Transfer |
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team pages.
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up
Tre Jones Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)
1 active Tre Jones prop write-up tracked awaiting closing line settlement.
Tre Jones CLV Counts
0 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost
0 Settled CLV Receipts| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | PHI @ CHI | Points | Over 9.5 (-120) · BetMGM | 11.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (75 Beat, 11 Tied, 39 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 7 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 9 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |