By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 24 to Nov 4), sportsbooks adjusted Kyshawn George's posted assists line upward in 1 of 5 game-over-game steps from 3.5 to 4.5 (+1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for ATL @ WAS is 4.8 (-110).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS @ CHI | 3.5 (+142) | — | 4 | Over | |
| WAS @ CHA | 3.5 (+116) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| WAS @ CLE | 3.5 (+140) | 0.0 | 11 | Over | |
| CHA @ WAS | 3.5 (+106) | 0.0 | 3 | Under | |
| WAS @ ORL | 3.5 (-103) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| ATL @ WAS | 4.5 (+140) | +1.0 | 7 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (+1.0) tracks actual window production (+1.8).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 · @ CHI | 3.5 | — | 4 | +0.5 |
| Oct 26 · @ CHA | 3.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -1.5 |
| Oct 28 · @ CLE | 3.5 | 0.0 | 11 | +7.5 |
| Oct 30 · vs CHA | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Nov 2 · @ ORL | 3.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +1.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs ATL | 4.5 | +1.0 | 7 | +2.5 |
George's established secondary passing role and a modest increase in possession opportunities give him a workable route to five assists.
4.6 AST · 32.3 MPG · 7 GAMES — George has averaged 4.6 assists in 32.3 minutes across seven games, while Young has averaged ten assists. George therefore has a demonstrated passing contribution without needing to replace the primary organizer.
5 AST LAST GAME · 33 MIN EXPECTED — George supplied five assists in 36:32 in the latest game. His expected 33 minutes, against an opponent playing at a faster early pace, leave time to connect possessions around Washington's main creators.
Young can control the final pass while Davis finishes possessions through isolation scoring, leaving George involved without assist credit. A deliberate opening half or additional touches flowing to Sarr can reduce the assisted baskets available to him.
Settlement Rule: CASHES KYSHAWN GEORGE OVER 4.5 ASSISTS WITH FIVE OR MORE; NO PUSH AT THE HALF-POINT.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Washington Wizards's 5 primary contributors.
| Washington Wizards Contributor | Nov 2 @ ORL | Nov 4 vs ATL | Nov 6 @ ATL | Nov 7 @ OKC | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis WAS · Points | 22.5 | 23.5 | 22.5 | 19.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Trae Young WAS · Points | 19.5 | 19.5 | 21.5 | 18.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| AJ Dybantsa WAS · Points | 17.5 | 18.5 | 19.5 | 17.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Kyshawn George WAS · Points | 13.5 | 14.5 | 16.5 | 15.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Alexandre Sarr WAS · Points | 10.5 | 10.5 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Kyshawn George prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | ATL @ WAS | Assists | Over 4.5 (+136) · FanDuel | 4.5 | 7 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
George's established secondary passing role and a modest increase in possession opportunities give him a workable route to five assists.
Counter-Case: Young can control the final pass while Davis finishes possessions through isolation scoring, leaving George involved without assist credit. A deliberate opening half or additional touches flowing to Sarr can reduce the assisted baskets available to him.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |