By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 26 to Nov 4), sportsbooks adjusted Dyson Daniels's posted assists line upward in 1 of 5 game-over-game steps from 4.5 to 5.5 (+1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for ATL @ WAS is 4.6 (-178).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ HOU | 4.5 (+125) | — | 4 | Under | |
| MIA @ ATL | 4.5 (-111) | 0.0 | 7 | Over | |
| CLE @ ATL | 4.5 (+100) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| ATL @ NOP | 4.5 (-116) | 0.0 | 3 | Under | |
| ATL @ IND | 6.5 (+115) | +2.0 | 4 | Under | |
| ATL @ WAS | 5.5 (-120) | -1.0 | 8 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (+1.0) tracks actual window production (+0.7).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 · @ HOU | 4.5 | — | 4 | -0.5 |
| Oct 28 · vs MIA | 4.5 | 0.0 | 7 | +2.5 |
| Oct 29 · vs CLE | 4.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +0.5 |
| Oct 31 · @ NOP | 4.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -1.5 |
| Nov 2 · @ IND | 6.5 | +2.0 | 4 | -2.5 |
| Nov 4 · @ WAS | 5.5 | -1.0 | 8 | +2.5 |
Daniels can contribute to Atlanta's ball movement without supplying the final pass on six made baskets.
4.1 AST · 29.1 MPG · 8 GAMES — Daniels has averaged 4.1 assists in 29.1 minutes across eight games. The 31-minute expectation gives him additional court time, but does not by itself restore the larger passing output from last season.
4 DANIELS AST · 12 MCCOLLUM AST — Daniels recorded four assists in 31 minutes in Atlanta's latest game, while McCollum supplied twelve in 32 minutes. That distribution shows how successful possessions can run through Daniels without assigning him the final credited pass.
Pressure on McCollum can put Daniels in the middle of the floor, where a roller or weak-side cutter creates quick assists. More possessions without Johnson, combined with strong teammate finishing, could deliver the sixth assist.
Settlement Rule: CASHES DYSON DANIELS UNDER 5.5 ASSISTS WITH FIVE OR FEWER; NO PUSH AT THE HALF-POINT.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Atlanta Hawks's 5 primary contributors.
| Atlanta Hawks Contributor | Nov 2 @ IND | Nov 4 @ WAS | Nov 6 vs WAS | Nov 7 vs BKN | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL · Points | 21.5 | 21.5 | 22.5 | 20.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jalen Johnson ATL · Points | — | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| CJ McCollum ATL · Points | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 13.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Onyeka Okongwu ATL · Points | 15.5 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 12.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Aaron Wiggins ATL · Points | 15.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | — | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Dyson Daniels prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | ATL @ WAS | Assists | Under 5.5 (-144) · ProphetX | 5.5 | 8 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Daniels can contribute to Atlanta's ball movement without supplying the final pass on six made baskets.
Counter-Case: Pressure on McCollum can put Daniels in the middle of the floor, where a roller or weak-side cutter creates quick assists. More possessions without Johnson, combined with strong teammate finishing, could deliver the sixth assist.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |