By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted rebounds total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 24 to Nov 4), sportsbooks adjusted Anthony Davis's posted rebounds line downward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 11.5 to 10.5 (-1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for ATL @ WAS is 9.6 (-154).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS @ CHI | 11.5 (+102) | — | 6 | Under | |
| WAS @ CHA | 10.5 (+102) | -1.0 | 10 | Under | |
| WAS @ CLE | 10.5 (-104) | 0.0 | 5 | Under | |
| CHA @ WAS | 9.5 (-125) | -1.0 | 13 | Over | |
| WAS @ ORL | 10.5 (-115) | +1.0 | 9 | Under | |
| ATL @ WAS | 10.5 (-111) | 0.0 | 10 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Books adjusted -1.0 vs. -2.7 actual output delta (-1.7 Book Over-Adjustment).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 · @ CHI | 11.5 | — | 6 | -5.5 |
| Oct 26 · @ CHA | 10.5 | -1.0 | 10 | -0.5 |
| Oct 28 · @ CLE | 10.5 | 0.0 | 5 | -5.5 |
| Oct 30 · vs CHA | 9.5 | -1.0 | 13 | +3.5 |
| Nov 2 · @ ORL | 10.5 | +1.0 | 9 | -1.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs ATL | 10.5 | 0.0 | 10 | -0.5 |
Shared frontcourt rebounding keeps Davis's expected total below the threshold even with a full closing workload.
9.1 REB · 33.4 MPG · 7 GAMES — Davis has averaged 9.1 rebounds in 33.4 minutes across seven games. Ayton started the latest game and collected six rebounds in 24:29, giving Washington another interior player who can finish defensive possessions.
9 REB · 33:50 LAST GAME · 34.5 MIN EXPECTED — Davis's latest appearance produced nine rebounds in 33:50. An expected 34.5-minute appearance allows him to play the closing stretch without requiring him to become the sole collector of frontcourt misses.
Foul trouble for the other bigs could leave Davis responsible for a much larger share of defensive rebounds. A long stretch of missed perimeter shots or an overtime period could supply enough extra chances to reach eleven.
Settlement Rule: CASHES ANTHONY DAVIS UNDER 10.5 REBOUNDS WITH 10 OR FEWER; NO PUSH AT THE HALF-POINT.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Washington Wizards's 5 primary contributors.
| Washington Wizards Contributor | Nov 2 @ ORL | Nov 4 vs ATL | Nov 6 @ ATL | Nov 7 @ OKC | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis WAS · Points | 22.5 | 23.5 | 22.5 | 19.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Trae Young WAS · Points | 19.5 | 19.5 | 21.5 | 18.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| AJ Dybantsa WAS · Points | 17.5 | 18.5 | 19.5 | 17.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Kyshawn George WAS · Points | 13.5 | 14.5 | 16.5 | 15.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Alexandre Sarr WAS · Points | 10.5 | 10.5 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
1 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Anthony Davis prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | ATL @ WAS | Rebounds | Under 10.5 (-104) · ProphetX | 10.5 | 10 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 30 | CHA @ WAS | Rebounds | Under 10.5 (-131) · ProphetX | 9.5 | 13 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 23 | TOR @ WAS | Points | Over 21.5 (-109) · DraftKings | 22.5 | 9 | — | Read Write-Up → |
Shared frontcourt rebounding keeps Davis's expected total below the threshold even with a full closing workload.
Counter-Case: Foul trouble for the other bigs could leave Davis responsible for a much larger share of defensive rebounds. A long stretch of missed perimeter shots or an overtime period could supply enough extra chances to reach eleven.
Davis's current rebound workload supports a single-digit central outcome despite his established ability to produce larger totals.
Counter-Case: Charlotte could miss often enough to provide Davis with a large pool of defensive rebounds. Sarr foul trouble could also move Davis into more interior possessions and concentrate the available boards with him.
Davis's primary finishing role supplies enough interior attempts and free throws to reach the scoring threshold.
Counter-Case: Toronto can front the post and crowd Davis's catches, forcing him to pass before gathering a shot. Fewer foul calls or early personal fouls could remove both scoring opportunities and playing time.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |