By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 20 to Oct 31), De'Aaron Fox's posted assists line has held net flat at 5.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for MIN @ SAS is 6.8 (-232).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC @ SAS | 5.5 (+125) | — | 7 | Over | |
| HOU @ SAS | 5.5 (+126) | 0.0 | 9 | Over | |
| SAS @ DAL | 5.5 (-122) | 0.0 | 9 | Over | |
| SAC @ SAS | 6.5 (+121) | +1.0 | 6 | Under | |
| SAS @ UTA | 6.5 (+112) | 0.0 | 4 | Under | |
| MIN @ SAS | 5.5 (-148) | -1.0 | 7 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.5 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.5 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · vs OKC | 5.5 | — | 7 | +1.5 |
| Oct 23 · vs HOU | 5.5 | 0.0 | 9 | +3.5 |
| Oct 24 · @ DAL | 5.5 | 0.0 | 9 | +3.5 |
| Oct 27 · vs SAC | 6.5 | +1.0 | 6 | -0.5 |
| Oct 28 · @ UTA | 6.5 | 0.0 | 4 | -2.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs MIN | 5.5 | -1.0 | 7 | +1.5 |
Fox's sustained playmaking role gives him a path to six assists without an exceptional scoring night.
6+ AST · FIRST 4 GAMES — Fox reached at least six assists in each of his first four appearances. That repeated production gives him a route through ordinary offensive possessions rather than requiring an isolated passing spike.
6.2 AST · 2025-26 | 6 AST · 26 MIN — Fox's prior-season assist average was 6.2, and he delivered six assists in 26 minutes against Sacramento. His creation can therefore remain productive before the closing stretch, although a comfortable lead still reduces the possessions available.
Castle and Harper can finish possessions as the passer instead of Fox, while missed jumpers leave good passes uncredited. A large fourth-quarter lead can also end his night before the last assist arrives.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WITH AT LEAST 6 OFFICIAL ASSISTS; 5 OR FEWER LOSES, WITH NO PUSH AT 5.5.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across San Antonio Spurs's 5 primary contributors.
| San Antonio Spurs Contributor | Nov 2 vs UTA | Nov 4 vs DAL | Nov 6 @ SAC | Nov 7 @ POR | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama SAS · Points | 26.5 | 26.5 | 28.5 | 26.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Stephon Castle SAS · Points | 16.5 | 15.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| De'Aaron Fox SAS · Points | 15.5 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 14.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Dylan Harper SAS · Points | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Devin Vassell SAS · Points | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled De'Aaron Fox prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | DAL @ SAS | Points | Over 14.5 (-125) · Fanatics | 14.5 | 10 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 31 | MIN @ SAS | Assists | Over 5.5 (-106) · ProphetX | 5.5 | 7 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
A competitive starter workload gives Fox a reasonable path beyond a scoring requirement below both his current and prior-season averages.
Counter-Case: The other San Antonio creators can leave Fox distributing rather than finishing possessions. Another comfortable win can take away his closing minutes. A genuinely low-scoring performance consistent with the first-half scoring read would also make this scoring target harder to reach.
Fox's sustained playmaking role gives him a path to six assists without an exceptional scoring night.
Counter-Case: Castle and Harper can finish possessions as the passer instead of Fox, while missed jumpers leave good passes uncredited. A large fourth-quarter lead can also end his night before the last assist arrives.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |