01 · Fundamental Driver
Passing baseline
2.7 AST · 31.8 MIN — Braun averaged 2.7 assists in 31.8 minutes last season. His passing contribution therefore does not require an expanded lead-guard assignment to become relevant.
Posted Line Trajectory: Opening CaptureSettled / Live Release · Full Dossier Unlocked
Christian Braun Assists Prop (Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder, ): Fair Line 2.5 (-248) vs 1.5 Market
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
BetMGM: Over 1.5 (-130)Modeled Edge: +24.1% EV · Fair Value 2.5 (-248)
- Pick & Release Line
- OVER 1.5 (-130)
- BetMGM
- Modeled Fair Line
- 2.5
- 1.0 Pt Delta
- Modeled Fair Price
- -248
- +24.1% EV
- Posted Line Drift
- 1.5
- Last 1 Active Games
- Matchup (CT)
- DEN @ OKC
- NBA Props Lane CLV
- 73 / 11 / 36
- Beat / Tied / Lost
Sportsbook Posted Assists Line Trajectory (Last 1 Active Game)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (2.5 / -248)
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Christian Braun's assists line at 1.5 for DEN @ OKC (Oct 22). WagerBird's modeled fair line for DEN @ OKC is 2.5 (-248).
1-Game Posted Assists Ledger (Christian Braun)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN @ OKC | 1.5 (-130) | — | 1 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Insufficient History1-Game Window
Christian Braun Assists Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Insufficient 6-game box-score history to measure book step-lag.
Unpriced Book Step-Lag-0.5Max Single-Game Book Step: —
- Window Open Line
- 1.5
- Current Posted Line
- 1.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- 0.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 1.0
- Actual Output Delta
- -0.5
- Modeled Fair Value
- 2.5 (-248)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 · @ OKC | 1.5 | — | 1 | -0.5 |
WagerBird Write-Up · Christian Braun Assists (Over 1.5)
Full Dossier UnlockedWrite-Up Thesis
Braun's established secondary passing production provides a credible route to multiple assists during a normal starting workload.
02 · Fundamental Driver
Conversion outlets
39.6% TEAM 3PT · 31 EXPECTED MIN — Denver shot 39.6% from three last season, providing an established source of converted perimeter passes. Braun can participate through secondary ball movement while retaining his starting role.
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
Jokić and Murray can make the decisive pass themselves, leaving Braun to finish rather than distribute. Missed perimeter shots can also erase otherwise useful passing possessions.
Settlement Rule: CASHES CHRISTIAN BRAUN FULL GAME ASSISTS OVER 1.5 WITH AT LEAST 2 ASSISTS; NO PUSH.
WagerBird Nucleus Drift · Team Prop Signal
DEN @ OKC · Denver Nuggets Points Nucleus Drift ()
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Denver Nuggets's 5 primary contributors.
DEN Nucleus Drift3 of 5 Core Props Adjusted DownMarket Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
| Denver Nuggets Contributor | Oct 30 @ PHX | Nov 2 vs POR | Nov 4 vs TOR | Nov 7 @ IND | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokić DEN · Points | 25.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 25.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Jamal Murray DEN · Points | 22.5 | 22.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Aaron Gordon DEN · Points | 14.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Cameron Johnson DEN · Points | 10.5 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| DeMar DeRozan DEN · Points | 12.5 | 11.5 | — | 11.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Denver Nuggets (DEN)3 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Down
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Oklahoma City Thunder (OKC)3 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Up
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team dossiers.
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up
Christian Braun Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 1 Lost)
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Christian Braun prop write-up.
Christian Braun CLV Counts
0 Beat · 0 Tied · 1 Lost
1 Settled CLV Receipt| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | DEN @ OKC | Assists | Over 1.5 (-135) · BetMGM | 1.5 | 1 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Christian Braun Prop Write-Ups
Oct 22 CT · DEN @ OKC · AssistsFull Write-Up →
Braun's established secondary passing production provides a credible route to multiple assists during a normal starting workload.
Counter-Case: Jokić and Murray can make the decisive pass themselves, leaving Braun to finish rather than distribute. Missed perimeter shots can also erase otherwise useful passing possessions.
NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |