By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 2 active games (Oct 21 to Oct 23), sportsbooks adjusted Immanuel Quickley's posted assists line downward in 1 of 1 game-over-game steps from 6.5 to 5.5 (-1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for TOR @ WAS is 6.5 (-190).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI @ TOR | 6.5 (+124) | — | 7 | Over | |
| TOR @ WAS | 5.5 (-141) | -1.0 | 6 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output 0.0 vs. -1.0 book step adjustment (+1.0 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · vs CHI | 6.5 | — | 7 | +0.5 |
| Oct 23 · @ WAS | 5.5 | -1.0 | 6 | +0.5 |
Quickley's established passing rate and a competitive starting workload create a clear route to six assists.
7 AST · 28 MIN — Quickley recorded seven assists in 28 minutes in the opener. He retained a distribution role alongside Toronto's other starters, allowing passing production without needing every possession to begin with him.
5.9 AST · 31.9 MIN — He averaged 5.9 assists in 31.9 minutes last season. That baseline places the required assist count within his ordinary starting workload rather than demanding an unusually aggressive passing night.
Barnes and Leonard can assume more initiation and leave Quickley working away from the ball. A restrained scoring night or missed open jumpers can prevent his passes from becoming assists even when the opportunities are present.
Settlement Rule: CASHES IMMANUEL QUICKLEY OVER 5.5 ASSISTS WITH SIX OR MORE ASSISTS; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Toronto Raptors's 5 primary contributors.
| Toronto Raptors Contributor | Nov 1 @ LAL | Nov 2 @ LAC | Nov 4 @ DEN | Nov 6 @ MIL | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard TOR · Points | — | — | — | — | +1.0 | — | Trending Up ↑ |
| RJ Barrett TOR · Points | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 26.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Scottie Barnes TOR · Points | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Immanuel Quickley TOR · Points | 17.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | — | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Collin Murray-Boyles TOR · Points | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 14.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Immanuel Quickley prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | TOR @ WAS | Assists | Over 5.5 (-135) · DraftKings | 5.5 | 6 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Quickley's established passing rate and a competitive starting workload create a clear route to six assists.
Counter-Case: Barnes and Leonard can assume more initiation and leave Quickley working away from the ball. A restrained scoring night or missed open jumpers can prevent his passes from becoming assists even when the opportunities are present.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |