Positive shot-stopping performances from the projected goalie pair and limited sustained five-on-five creation keep the combined scoring below the posted total.
Fundamental Case (4 Drivers)
St. Louis has generated 2.76 expected goals per sixty minutes at five-on-five, while Nashville has generated 2.46. Nashville's limited shot-attempt share makes repeat attacking possessions harder to sustain. That puts more pressure on isolated rushes and special teams to create the scoring needed to beat this total.
Hofer and Saros have each allowed fewer goals than MoneyPuck's shot-quality estimates would predict. Their similar positive contributions make the shot-stopping case about both ends of the rink rather than a one-sided goalie advantage. Turning a dangerous chance into a save forces another successful attacking sequence before the scoreboard changes.
Both penalty kills have conceded five goals in the current sixteen-game sample. Nashville has the stronger power-play scoring output, but the opposing kill has not routinely turned penalties into goals. If clears and saves keep the first chance from becoming an extended sequence, whistles need not produce a burst of scoring.
The posted total lets six combined settlement goals cash this side. Overtime and the shootout winner's extra goal count, so a tied regulation score can still change the result. Late empty-net scoring is the other direct route through that threshold.
Red Team Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Nashville can convert its power-play chances quickly and force St. Louis to attack more aggressively. Both offenses have scored less than their expected-goal production, so cleaner finishing can turn ordinary chances into goals. Turnovers through the neutral zone can create rush chances before either defense gets set. A late empty-net goal or an overtime winner after a tied regulation score can supply the final goal that defeats this play.