NHL Player Prop & CLV DossierTeam: STLPosted Line Trajectory: Flat (0.0 over 6 games)

Mason McTavish (NHL) Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory & CLV Record

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)

NHL Player Props CLV Counts
50 Beat · 10 Tied · 21 Lost
Mason McTavish Releases: 1 Beat / 0 Tied / 2 Lost

Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)

Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game.

Posted Book Line
Across the last 6 active games (Oct 24 to Nov 7), Mason McTavish's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5.3.53.12.72.31.91.52.52.52.52.52.52.5Oct 24CAR @ STLOct 29BOS @ STLOct 31STL @ DETNov 3STL @ NYRNov 5STL @ NJNov 7STL @ NAS

Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 24 to Nov 7), Mason McTavish's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5.

6-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Mason McTavish)

America/Chicago (CT)
Date (CT)MatchupPosted LineMoveActualResult
CAR @ STL2.5 (+145)—0Under
BOS @ STL2.5 (+140)0.05Over
STL @ DET2.5 (+138)0.01Under
STL @ NYR2.5 (+121)0.01Under
STL @ NJ2.5 (+142)0.04Over
STL @ NAS2.5 (+120)0.0—Upcoming

Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.

Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Balanced Pricing6-Game Window

Mason McTavish Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)

Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.7).

Unpriced Book Step-Lag+0.7Max Single-Game Book Step: 0.0
Window Open Line
2.5
Current Posted Line
2.5
Book Cumulative Step
0.0
Actual Window Avg
3.2
Actual Output Delta
+0.7
Modeled Fair Value
—
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
Mason McTavish Sticky Book Anchoring Meter: 6-game Posted Shots on Goal Line vs Actual Box-Score Output605Oct 27vs MON5Oct 29vs BOS1Oct 31@ DET1Nov 3@ NYR4Nov 5@ NJNov 7@ NAS
Game (CT)Posted LineBook StepActualBox Surplus
Oct 27 · vs MON——5—
Oct 29 · vs BOS2.5—5+2.5
Oct 31 · @ DET2.50.01-1.5
Nov 3 · @ NYR2.50.01-1.5
Nov 5 · @ NJ2.50.04+1.5
Nov 7 · @ NAS2.50.0——
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault3 Tracked Write-Ups

Mason McTavish Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (1 Beat, 0 Tied, 2 Lost)

1 Beat / 0 Tied / 2 Lost closing line value record across 3 settled Mason McTavish prop write-ups.

Mason McTavish CLV Counts
1 Beat · 0 Tied · 2 Lost
3 Settled CLV Receipts
Date (CT)MatchupMarketRelease QuoteClosing LineActualCLV GradeWrite-Up
Nov 5STL @ NJShots on GoalOver 2.5 (+120) · Fanatics2.54LostRead Write-Up →
Nov 3STL @ NYRShots on GoalOver 2.5 (+115) · Fanatics2.51LostRead Write-Up →
Oct 22VEG @ STLShots on GoalOver 2.5 (+140) · Fanatics2.52BeatRead Write-Up →

Archived Settled Mason McTavish Prop Write-Ups

Nov 5 CT · STL @ NJ · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →

McTavish's substantial team shot share and first-unit power-play access support a three-shot outcome.

Counter-Case: McTavish can use his attacking touches to feed the wings instead of shooting, as his latest one-shot appearances illustrate. If New Jersey wins possession and blocks the middle, even lengthy power-play shifts may not produce three registered attempts.

Nov 3 CT · STL @ NYR · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →

McTavish’s existing shot rate and first-unit power-play access support three shots without requiring a high-scoring game.

Counter-Case: New York can deny the middle and force McTavish’s line into passes that end in blocked or wide attempts. A penalty-light game removes some first-unit opportunities, while a quiet game can leave too few attacking possessions to reach three recorded shots.

Oct 22 CT · VEG @ STL · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →

McTavish's share of St. Louis's shooting and his second-unit role provide a route to three shots without requiring a high-scoring game.

Counter-Case: Vegas can force the second line into perimeter possessions, with attempts blocked or sent wide before they reach the goaltender. A long shift by the first power-play group can leave McTavish's unit little useful time, making three official shots harder to accumulate.

Mason McTavish WagerBird Prop Release & CLV Archive

Date (CT)MatchupMarketReleaseCloseActualCLV Grade
Nov 5STL @ NJShots on GoalOver 2.52.54Lost
Nov 3STL @ NYRShots on GoalOver 2.52.51Lost
Oct 22VEG @ STLShots on GoalOver 2.52.52Beat

NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)

WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)
Prop Lane WindowBeat CloseTied CloseLost Close
Season to date (from Sep 23 CT)501021
Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT)48921