By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 4 active games (Oct 12 to Oct 17), Seth Jones's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 1.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for SEA @ FLA is 2.4 (-215).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA @ BUF | 1.5 (-104) | — | 4 | Over | |
| FLA @ CBJ | 1.5 (-120) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| VAN @ FLA | 1.5 (-150) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| SEA @ FLA | 1.5 (-164) | 0.0 | 1 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 2 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.5 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.5 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 · @ LA | 1.5 | — | 2 | +0.5 |
| Oct 10 · vs MIN | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +1.5 |
| Oct 12 · @ BUF | 1.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +2.5 |
| Oct 13 · @ CBJ | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +1.5 |
| Oct 15 · vs VAN | 1.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +3.5 |
| Oct 17 · vs SEA | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -0.5 |
Jones's substantial minutes and first-unit power-play role give him several routes to the two shots required.
24 SHOTS · 8 GAMES · 25:55 TOI — Jones has taken 24 shots through eight games while averaging 25:55 on the ice. That workload gives him repeated offensive-zone shifts rather than requiring one unusually productive possession.
PP1 · SEATTLE 31.1 SHOTS ALLOWED/G — Jones works on Florida's first power-play unit, connecting his point releases to the club's primary attacking group. Seattle's 31.1 shots allowed per game provides a favorable environment for those releases to become official shots.
Seattle can block Jones's point releases before they reach the goaltender. Florida's forwards can also absorb the power-play attempts, leaving Jones with heavy minutes but only one official shot.
Settlement Rule: CASHES SETH JONES OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST 2 OFFICIAL SHOTS ON GOAL; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Florida Panthers's 5 primary contributors.
| Florida Panthers Contributor | Oct 30 vs WPG | Nov 2 vs DET | Nov 4 vs CHI | Nov 7 @ WAS | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk FLA · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Sam Reinhart FLA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Matthew Tkachuk FLA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Carter Verhaeghe FLA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Sam Bennett FLA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
3 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 4 settled Seth Jones prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | CHI @ FLA | Shots on Goal | Over 1.5 (-160) · FanDuel | 1.5 | 4 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 21 | FLA @ OTT | Shots on Goal | Over 1.5 (-122) · FanDuel | 1.5 | 3 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 17 | SEA @ FLA | Shots on Goal | Over 1.5 (-164) · FanDuel | 1.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 15 | VAN @ FLA | Shots on Goal | Over 1.5 (-140) · FanDuel | 1.5 | 5 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Seth Jones’s heavy minutes and first-unit power-play deployment give him repeated chances to put two pucks on net.
Counter-Case: Chicago can block Jones’s point attempts while Florida’s forwards retain the finishing opportunities on the power play. A protected Florida lead can turn offensive possessions into safe puck management rather than additional shots from the blue line.
Jones combines a large ice-time workload with first-unit power-play access, creating multiple routes to two shots on goal.
Counter-Case: Jones could use his offensive touches primarily to feed the flank shooters. Ottawa could also block his point attempts before they reach the goalie, leaving a busy offensive night short of the required shots on net.
Jones's substantial minutes and first-unit power-play role give him several routes to the two shots required.
Counter-Case: Seattle can block Jones's point releases before they reach the goaltender. Florida's forwards can also absorb the power-play attempts, leaving Jones with heavy minutes but only one official shot.
Jones' heavy workload and first-unit power-play position give him several routes to the two shots required.
Counter-Case: Vancouver can close shooting lanes and turn Jones' point attempts into blocks rather than shots on goal. If Florida's power play moves the puck directly to its forwards, he can direct the attack without putting two attempts on target.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |