Seth Jones (NHL) Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory & CLV Record
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 22 to Nov 7), Seth Jones's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 1.5.
6-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Seth Jones)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA @ PIT | 1.5 (-130) | — | 1 | Under | |
| FLA @ CHI | 1.5 (-152) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| FLA @ WPG | 1.5 (-135) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| DET @ FLA(Missed 1g) | 1.5 (-160) | 0.0 | 0 | Under | |
| CHI @ FLA | 1.5 (-160) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| FLA @ WAS | 1.5 (-145) | 0.0 | — | Upcoming |
Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Seth Jones Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.9).
- Window Open Line
- 1.5
- Current Posted Line
- 1.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- 0.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 2.4
- Actual Output Delta
- +0.9
- Modeled Fair Value
- —
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 · @ CHI | 1.5 | — | 4 | +2.5 |
| Oct 27 · @ WPG | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +1.5 |
| Oct 30 · vs WPG | — | — | 1 | — |
| Nov 2 · vs DET | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs CHI | 1.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +2.5 |
| Nov 7 · @ WAS | 1.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
Seth Jones Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (3 Beat, 0 Tied, 1 Lost)
3 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 4 settled Seth Jones prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | CHI @ FLA | Shots on Goal | Over 1.5 (-160) · FanDuel | 1.5 | 4 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 21 | FLA @ OTT | Shots on Goal | Over 1.5 (-122) · FanDuel | 1.5 | 3 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 17 | SEA @ FLA | Shots on Goal | Over 1.5 (-164) · FanDuel | 1.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 15 | VAN @ FLA | Shots on Goal | Over 1.5 (-140) · FanDuel | 1.5 | 5 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Seth Jones Prop Write-Ups
Seth Jones’s heavy minutes and first-unit power-play deployment give him repeated chances to put two pucks on net.
Counter-Case: Chicago can block Jones’s point attempts while Florida’s forwards retain the finishing opportunities on the power play. A protected Florida lead can turn offensive possessions into safe puck management rather than additional shots from the blue line.
Jones combines a large ice-time workload with first-unit power-play access, creating multiple routes to two shots on goal.
Counter-Case: Jones could use his offensive touches primarily to feed the flank shooters. Ottawa could also block his point attempts before they reach the goalie, leaving a busy offensive night short of the required shots on net.
Jones's substantial minutes and first-unit power-play role give him several routes to the two shots required.
Counter-Case: Seattle can block Jones's point releases before they reach the goaltender. Florida's forwards can also absorb the power-play attempts, leaving Jones with heavy minutes but only one official shot.
Jones' heavy workload and first-unit power-play position give him several routes to the two shots required.
Counter-Case: Vancouver can close shooting lanes and turn Jones' point attempts into blocks rather than shots on goal. If Florida's power play moves the puck directly to its forwards, he can direct the attack without putting two attempts on target.
Seth Jones WagerBird Prop Release & CLV Archive
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release | Close | Actual | CLV Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | CHI @ FLA | Shots on Goal | Over 1.5 | 1.5 | 4 | Beat |
| Oct 21 | FLA @ OTT | Shots on Goal | Over 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | Lost |
| Oct 17 | SEA @ FLA | Shots on Goal | Over 1.5 | 1.5 | 1 | Beat |
| Oct 15 | VAN @ FLA | Shots on Goal | Over 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | Beat |
NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |