By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 22 to Nov 5), Mason McTavish's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for STL @ NJ is 2.8 (-114).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VEG @ STL | 2.5 (+142) | — | 2 | Under | |
| CAR @ STL | 2.5 (+145) | 0.0 | 0 | Under | |
| BOS @ STL | 2.5 (+140) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| STL @ DET | 2.5 (+138) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| STL @ NYR | 2.5 (+121) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| STL @ NJ | 2.5 (+142) | 0.0 | 4 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.2).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 · vs CAR | 2.5 | — | 0 | -2.5 |
| Oct 27 · vs MON | — | — | 5 | — |
| Oct 29 · vs BOS | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 31 · @ DET | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Nov 3 · @ NYR | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Nov 5 · @ NJ | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
McTavish's substantial team shot share and first-unit power-play access support a three-shot outcome.
43 SOG · 15 GP · 10.7% TEAM SHARE — McTavish has taken 43 shots in 15 games, approximately 10.7% of St. Louis's total. That share makes him a recurring shooting option rather than someone who needs an isolated scoring chance to reach the requirement.
PP1 · 18:55 LAST GAME · 17:30 EXPECTED — McTavish centers Connor McMichael and Jonatan Berggren and also works on the first power-play unit. His latest 18:55 appearance included 6:49 on the power play, while the expected 17:30 workload allows for fewer special-teams minutes without removing that additional route to shots.
McTavish can use his attacking touches to feed the wings instead of shooting, as his latest one-shot appearances illustrate. If New Jersey wins possession and blocks the middle, even lengthy power-play shifts may not produce three registered attempts.
Settlement Rule: CASHES MASON MCTAVISH OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST 3 OFFICIAL SHOTS · PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across St. Louis Blues's 5 primary contributors.
| St. Louis Blues Contributor | Oct 31 @ DET | Nov 3 @ NYR | Nov 5 @ NJ | Nov 7 @ NAS | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Snuggerud STL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Mason McTavish STL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Dylan Holloway STL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Philip Broberg STL · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Robert Thomas STL · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 2 Lost closing line value record across 3 settled Mason McTavish prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | STL @ NJ | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+120) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 4 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Nov 3 | STL @ NYR | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+115) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 1 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 22 | VEG @ STL | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+140) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
McTavish's substantial team shot share and first-unit power-play access support a three-shot outcome.
Counter-Case: McTavish can use his attacking touches to feed the wings instead of shooting, as his latest one-shot appearances illustrate. If New Jersey wins possession and blocks the middle, even lengthy power-play shifts may not produce three registered attempts.
McTavish’s existing shot rate and first-unit power-play access support three shots without requiring a high-scoring game.
Counter-Case: New York can deny the middle and force McTavish’s line into passes that end in blocked or wide attempts. A penalty-light game removes some first-unit opportunities, while a quiet game can leave too few attacking possessions to reach three recorded shots.
McTavish's share of St. Louis's shooting and his second-unit role provide a route to three shots without requiring a high-scoring game.
Counter-Case: Vegas can force the second line into perimeter possessions, with attempts blocked or sent wide before they reach the goaltender. A long shift by the first power-play group can leave McTavish's unit little useful time, making three official shots harder to accumulate.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |