By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 20 to Nov 3), Mason McTavish's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for STL @ NYR is 3.0 (-136).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG @ STL | 2.5 (+110) | — | 0 | Under | |
| VEG @ STL | 2.5 (+142) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| CAR @ STL | 2.5 (+145) | 0.0 | 0 | Under | |
| BOS @ STL | 2.5 (+140) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| STL @ DET | 2.5 (+138) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| STL @ NYR | 2.5 (+121) | 0.0 | 1 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (-0.2).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 · vs VEG | 2.5 | — | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 24 · vs CAR | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0 | -2.5 |
| Oct 27 · vs MON | — | — | 5 | — |
| Oct 29 · vs BOS | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 31 · @ DET | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Nov 3 · @ NYR | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
McTavish’s existing shot rate and first-unit power-play access support three shots without requiring a high-scoring game.
42 SOG · 14 GAMES · 3.00/G — McTavish has recorded 42 shots in 14 games and reached three shots in eight of them. That volume supports the target without requiring extra minutes or an improvement in finishing.
L2 · PP1 · 16 MIN EXPECTED — McTavish centers Buchnevich and Berggren and joins the first power-play unit with Thomas and Snuggerud. Those assignments create shooting opportunities at even strength and with the extra attacker, rather than requiring first-line even-strength minutes.
New York can deny the middle and force McTavish’s line into passes that end in blocked or wide attempts. A penalty-light game removes some first-unit opportunities, while a quiet game can leave too few attacking possessions to reach three recorded shots.
Settlement Rule: CASHES MASON MCTAVISH FULL GAME SHOTS ON GOAL OVER 2.5 WITH AT LEAST 3 RECORDED SOG · PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across St. Louis Blues's 5 primary contributors.
| St. Louis Blues Contributor | Oct 31 @ DET | Nov 3 @ NYR | Nov 5 @ NJ | Nov 7 @ NAS | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Snuggerud STL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Dylan Holloway STL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Mason McTavish STL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Philip Broberg STL · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Robert Thomas STL · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 2 Lost closing line value record across 3 settled Mason McTavish prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | STL @ NJ | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+120) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 4 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Nov 3 | STL @ NYR | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+115) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 1 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 22 | VEG @ STL | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+140) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
McTavish's substantial team shot share and first-unit power-play access support a three-shot outcome.
Counter-Case: McTavish can use his attacking touches to feed the wings instead of shooting, as his latest one-shot appearances illustrate. If New Jersey wins possession and blocks the middle, even lengthy power-play shifts may not produce three registered attempts.
McTavish’s existing shot rate and first-unit power-play access support three shots without requiring a high-scoring game.
Counter-Case: New York can deny the middle and force McTavish’s line into passes that end in blocked or wide attempts. A penalty-light game removes some first-unit opportunities, while a quiet game can leave too few attacking possessions to reach three recorded shots.
McTavish's share of St. Louis's shooting and his second-unit role provide a route to three shots without requiring a high-scoring game.
Counter-Case: Vegas can force the second line into perimeter possessions, with attempts blocked or sent wide before they reach the goaltender. A long shift by the first power-play group can leave McTavish's unit little useful time, making three official shots harder to accumulate.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |