By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 24 to Nov 5), Philip Broberg's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 1.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for STL @ NJ is 2.4 (-220).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR @ STL | 1.5 (-110) | — | 1 | Under | |
| MON @ STL | 1.5 (-130) | 0.0 | 6 | Over | |
| BOS @ STL | 1.5 (-114) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| STL @ DET | 1.5 (-105) | 0.0 | 0 | Under | |
| STL @ NYR | 1.5 (-117) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| STL @ NJ | 1.5 (+100) | 0.0 | 3 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.0 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.0 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 · vs CAR | 1.5 | — | 1 | -0.5 |
| Oct 27 · vs MON | 1.5 | 0.0 | 6 | +4.5 |
| Oct 29 · vs BOS | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -0.5 |
| Oct 31 · @ DET | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Nov 3 · @ NYR | 1.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +2.5 |
| Nov 5 · @ NJ | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +1.5 |
Broberg's heavy workload and first-unit power-play role create enough point-shot opportunities to reach two shots.
27:09 / 27:34 LAST 2 · 26:00 EXPECTED — Broberg played 27:09 and 27:34 in his last two appearances while occupying a first-pair assignment. The expected 26:00 workload leaves substantial time to join offensive possessions rather than requiring every chance to arrive on special teams.
34 SOG · 15 GP · PP1 — Broberg has 34 shots in 15 games and works with the lead power-play group. That assignment puts him in position to direct pucks through traffic when the penalty killers collapse toward the forwards.
Broberg can spend heavy minutes defending or moving the puck laterally without registering shots. New Jersey can close his point lanes and block attempts before they reach the goaltender, while a return by Colton Parayko could redistribute his workload.
Settlement Rule: CASHES PHILIP BROBERG OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST 2 OFFICIAL SHOTS · PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across St. Louis Blues's 5 primary contributors.
| St. Louis Blues Contributor | Oct 31 @ DET | Nov 3 @ NYR | Nov 5 @ NJ | Nov 7 @ NAS | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Snuggerud STL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Mason McTavish STL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Dylan Holloway STL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Philip Broberg STL · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Robert Thomas STL · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Philip Broberg prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | STL @ NJ | Shots on Goal | Over 1.5 (-120) · Fanatics | 1.5 | 3 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Broberg's heavy workload and first-unit power-play role create enough point-shot opportunities to reach two shots.
Counter-Case: Broberg can spend heavy minutes defending or moving the puck laterally without registering shots. New Jersey can close his point lanes and block attempts before they reach the goaltender, while a return by Colton Parayko could redistribute his workload.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |