By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 5 active games (Oct 13 to Oct 22), sportsbooks adjusted Dylan Guenther's posted shots on goal line downward in 1 of 4 game-over-game steps from 3.5 to 2.5 (-1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for UTA @ SEA is 3.2 (-158).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR @ UTA | 3.5 (+128) | — | 2 | Under | |
| UTA @ EDM | 2.5 (-125) | -1.0 | 2 | Under | |
| EDM @ UTA | 2.5 (-130) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| PIT @ UTA | 2.5 (-130) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| UTA @ SEA | 2.5 (-128) | 0.0 | 2 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (0.0).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 · @ BUF | 2.5 | — | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 13 · vs TOR | 3.5 | +1.0 | 2 | -1.5 |
| Oct 15 · @ EDM | 2.5 | -1.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 17 · vs EDM | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 19 · vs PIT | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 22 · @ SEA | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
Guenther's regular shooting rate, separate even-strength line and primary power-play assignment support a path to three shots.
30 SOG · 10 GP · 16:25 ATOI — Guenther has recorded 30 shots in 10 appearances while averaging 16:25, approximately 10.0% of Utah's shots. He plays beside Cooley and Trocheck, providing a different even-strength source of chances from the Keller-Schmaltz line.
PP1 · 31.1 OPP SA/G — Guenther joins Keller and Schmaltz on the first power-play unit despite playing on a separate forward line. Against a Seattle team allowing 31.1 shots per game, that assignment gives him an additional route to shooting opportunities when his even-strength shifts produce little.
Seattle can limit Guenther's extra opportunities by staying out of the penalty box. Cooley and Trocheck can finish the second line's possessions themselves, while other shooters absorb the primary power-play group's attempts.
Settlement Rule: CASHES DYLAN GUENTHER OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH 3 OR MORE OFFICIAL SOG; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE AT 2.5.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Utah Mammoth's 5 primary contributors.
| Utah Mammoth Contributor | Nov 1 @ PHI | Nov 3 @ TOR | Nov 5 @ MON | Nov 7 @ OTT | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz UTA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Logan Cooley UTA · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Clayton Keller UTA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Dylan Guenther UTA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| MacKenzie Weegar UTA · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
2 Beat / 1 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 4 settled Dylan Guenther prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | UTA @ PHI | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-140) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 4 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 22 | UTA @ SEA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-125) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 17 | EDM @ UTA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-110) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 6 | UTA @ NJ | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-130) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 5 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
Guenther's established shooting volume and premium attacking deployment give him multiple routes to three shots on net.
Counter-Case: Philadelphia can push his attempts toward the perimeter and block the shooting lanes. A quiet penalty game or a Utah lead that reduces late attacking urgency can leave him short of the required shots.
Guenther's regular shooting rate, separate even-strength line and primary power-play assignment support a path to three shots.
Counter-Case: Seattle can limit Guenther's extra opportunities by staying out of the penalty box. Cooley and Trocheck can finish the second line's possessions themselves, while other shooters absorb the primary power-play group's attempts.
Guenther's established shooting volume and first-unit access support at least three shots on goal.
Counter-Case: Edmonton can block Guenther's one-timers or force attempts wide, neither of which adds a shot on goal. An early Utah lead can also reduce the late attacking volume he needs to reach three.
Guenther combines a season-long three-shot pace with first-unit opportunities.
Counter-Case: Guenther finished with two shots on October 4, which would lose this wager. Utah's first unit can control the puck while teammates take the actual shots.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |