01 · Fundamental Driver
Finishing role
242 SHOTS / 79 GAMES — Guenther's full-season volume is already near the required count. His line with Cooley and Lee supplies additional opportunities when Utah sustains pressure.
Posted Line Trajectory: Opening CaptureSettled / Live Release · Full Dossier Unlocked
Dylan Guenther Shots on Goal Prop (Utah Mammoth @ New Jersey Devils, ): Fair Line 3.2 (-163) vs 2.5 Market
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Fanatics: Over 2.5 (-120)Modeled Edge: +9.7% EV · Fair Value 3.2 (-163)
- Pick & Release Line
- OVER 2.5 (-120)
- DraftKings
- Modeled Fair Line
- 3.2
- 0.7 Pt Delta
- Modeled Fair Price
- -163
- +9.7% EV
- Posted Line Drift
- 2.5
- Last 1 Active Games
- Matchup (CT)
- UTA @ NJ
- NHL Props Lane CLV
- 50 / 10 / 21
- Beat / Tied / Lost
Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 1 Active Game)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (3.2 / -163)
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Dylan Guenther's shots on goal line at 2.5 for UTA @ NJ (Oct 6). WagerBird's modeled fair line for UTA @ NJ is 3.2 (-163).
1-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Dylan Guenther)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA @ NJ | 2.5 (-120) | — | 5 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Lagging Production4-Game Window
Dylan Guenther Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Actual output +1.8 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.8 Unpriced Book Lag).
Unpriced Book Step-Lag+1.8Max Single-Game Book Step: -1.0
- Window Open Line
- 2.5
- Current Posted Line
- 2.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- 0.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 4.3
- Actual Output Delta
- +1.8
- Modeled Fair Value
- 3.2 (-163)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 · vs CHI | 2.5 | — | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 3 · @ CBJ | 3.5 | +1.0 | 5 | +1.5 |
| Oct 4 · @ NYR | 2.5 | -1.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 6 · @ NJ | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
WagerBird Write-Up · Dylan Guenther Shots on Goal (Over 2.5)
Full Dossier UnlockedWrite-Up Thesis
Guenther combines a season-long three-shot pace with first-unit opportunities.
02 · Fundamental Driver
Early-game volume
FIVE SHOTS OCT 1 · FIVE OCT 3 — He reached five shots in each of Utah's first two listed games. First-unit power-play time gives him another setting in which to find the third.
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
Guenther finished with two shots on October 4, which would lose this wager. Utah's first unit can control the puck while teammates take the actual shots.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WITH AT LEAST THREE DYLAN GUENTHER SHOTS ON GOAL; NO PUSH.
WagerBird Nucleus Drift · Team Prop Signal
UTA @ NJ · Utah Mammoth Shots on Goal Nucleus Drift ()
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Utah Mammoth's 5 primary contributors.
UTA Nucleus Drift5 of 5 Core Props Held FlatBalanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
| Utah Mammoth Contributor | Nov 1 @ PHI | Nov 3 @ TOR | Nov 5 @ MON | Nov 7 @ OTT | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Keller UTA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Nick Schmaltz UTA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Dylan Guenther UTA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Mikhail Sergachev UTA · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| MacKenzie Weegar UTA · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Utah Mammoth (UTA)5 of 5 Core Props Held Flat
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
New Jersey Devils (NJ)1 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Down
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team dossiers.
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault4 Tracked Write-Ups
Dylan Guenther Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (2 Beat, 1 Tied, 1 Lost)
2 Beat / 1 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 4 settled Dylan Guenther prop write-ups.
Dylan Guenther CLV Counts
2 Beat · 1 Tied · 1 Lost
4 Settled CLV Receipts| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | UTA @ PHI | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-140) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 4 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 22 | UTA @ SEA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-125) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 17 | EDM @ UTA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-110) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 6 | UTA @ NJ | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-130) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 5 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Dylan Guenther Prop Write-Ups
Nov 1 CT · UTA @ PHI · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →
Guenther's established shooting volume and premium attacking deployment give him multiple routes to three shots on net.
Counter-Case: Philadelphia can push his attempts toward the perimeter and block the shooting lanes. A quiet penalty game or a Utah lead that reduces late attacking urgency can leave him short of the required shots.
Oct 22 CT · UTA @ SEA · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →
Guenther's regular shooting rate, separate even-strength line and primary power-play assignment support a path to three shots.
Counter-Case: Seattle can limit Guenther's extra opportunities by staying out of the penalty box. Cooley and Trocheck can finish the second line's possessions themselves, while other shooters absorb the primary power-play group's attempts.
Oct 17 CT · EDM @ UTA · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →
Guenther's established shooting volume and first-unit access support at least three shots on goal.
Counter-Case: Edmonton can block Guenther's one-timers or force attempts wide, neither of which adds a shot on goal. An early Utah lead can also reduce the late attacking volume he needs to reach three.
Oct 6 CT · UTA @ NJ · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →
Guenther combines a season-long three-shot pace with first-unit opportunities.
Counter-Case: Guenther finished with two shots on October 4, which would lose this wager. Utah's first unit can control the puck while teammates take the actual shots.
NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |