By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 3 active games (Oct 13 to Oct 17), sportsbooks adjusted Dylan Guenther's posted shots on goal line downward in 1 of 2 game-over-game steps from 3.5 to 2.5 (-1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for EDM @ UTA is 3.1 (-147).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR @ UTA | 3.5 (+128) | — | 2 | Under | |
| UTA @ EDM | 2.5 (-125) | -1.0 | 2 | Under | |
| EDM @ UTA | 2.5 (-130) | 0.0 | 2 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.2).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 · @ NJ | 2.5 | — | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 8 · @ BOS | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0 | -2.5 |
| Oct 10 · @ BUF | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 13 · vs TOR | 3.5 | +1.0 | 2 | -1.5 |
| Oct 15 · @ EDM | 2.5 | -1.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 17 · vs EDM | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
Guenther's established shooting volume and first-unit access support at least three shots on goal.
26 SOG / 8 GP · 242 SOG / 79 GP — Guenther has 26 shots in eight games following 242 in 79 last season. The sustained volume makes this a shooting-opportunity position rather than a bet on unusually hot finishing.
17.5 PROJECTED MIN · PP1 · 10.70% SHOT SHARE — Guenther's projected line includes Cooley and Trocheck, and he works on the first power-play unit. His 26 of Utah's 243 shots represent a 10.70% share, with passing support that can help produce additional attempts during a 17.5-minute workload.
Edmonton can block Guenther's one-timers or force attempts wide, neither of which adds a shot on goal. An early Utah lead can also reduce the late attacking volume he needs to reach three.
Settlement Rule: CASHES DYLAN GUENTHER OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST THREE OFFICIAL SHOTS ON GOAL; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Utah Mammoth's 5 primary contributors.
| Utah Mammoth Contributor | Nov 1 @ PHI | Nov 3 @ TOR | Nov 5 @ MON | Nov 7 @ OTT | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz UTA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Clayton Keller UTA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Dylan Guenther UTA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Mikhail Sergachev UTA · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| MacKenzie Weegar UTA · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
2 Beat / 1 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 4 settled Dylan Guenther prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | UTA @ PHI | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-140) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 4 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 22 | UTA @ SEA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-125) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 17 | EDM @ UTA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-110) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 6 | UTA @ NJ | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-130) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 5 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
Guenther's established shooting volume and premium attacking deployment give him multiple routes to three shots on net.
Counter-Case: Philadelphia can push his attempts toward the perimeter and block the shooting lanes. A quiet penalty game or a Utah lead that reduces late attacking urgency can leave him short of the required shots.
Guenther's regular shooting rate, separate even-strength line and primary power-play assignment support a path to three shots.
Counter-Case: Seattle can limit Guenther's extra opportunities by staying out of the penalty box. Cooley and Trocheck can finish the second line's possessions themselves, while other shooters absorb the primary power-play group's attempts.
Guenther's established shooting volume and first-unit access support at least three shots on goal.
Counter-Case: Edmonton can block Guenther's one-timers or force attempts wide, neither of which adds a shot on goal. An early Utah lead can also reduce the late attacking volume he needs to reach three.
Guenther combines a season-long three-shot pace with first-unit opportunities.
Counter-Case: Guenther finished with two shots on October 4, which would lose this wager. Utah's first unit can control the puck while teammates take the actual shots.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |