By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 24 to Nov 4), Tyler Herro's posted 3-pointers made line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for MIL @ BOS is 3.3 (-178).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL @ PHI | 2.5 (-105) | — | 1 | Under | |
| IND @ MIL | 2.5 (-145) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| HOU @ MIL | 2.5 (-111) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| CLE @ MIL | 2.5 (-125) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| MIL @ MIN | 2.5 (+105) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| MIL @ BOS | 2.5 (-118) | 0.0 | 4 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.8).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 · @ PHI | 2.5 | — | 1 | -1.5 |
| Oct 26 · vs IND | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 28 · vs HOU | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs CLE | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Nov 2 · @ MIN | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Nov 4 · @ BOS | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
Herro's three-point attempt volume supports the required makes even after reducing his assumed shooting accuracy.
8.3 3PA · 30.3 MIN — Herro has attempted 8.3 threes per game in 30.3 minutes. The 32-minute expectation supports approximately 8.8 attempts, and using 38% conversion rather than his current 43.1% still produces a 3.3-make estimate.
11 3PA LAST GAME · 42.57 OPPONENT 3PA — Herro attempted 11 threes and made four in his latest 31-minute appearance. Boston's opponents have attempted 42.57 threes per game, providing an attempt-volume route even though their 34.6% conversion warns against assuming easy accuracy.
Boston can remove catch-and-shoot chances and steer Herro into drives or passes. A cold perimeter night can lose the play even with sufficient attempts, especially if Milwaukee's overall scoring stays restrained.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WITH 3 OR MORE TYLER HERRO MADE THREES · PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Milwaukee Bucks's 5 primary contributors.
| Milwaukee Bucks Contributor | Oct 31 vs CLE | Nov 2 @ MIN | Nov 4 @ BOS | Nov 6 vs TOR | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro MIL · Points | 21.5 | 20.5 | 19.5 | 20.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIL · Points | 15.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 14.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Brayden Burries MIL · Points | — | 6.5 | 11.5 | 10.5 | +5.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Ryan Rollins MIL · Points | 14.5 | 13.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | -3.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Myles Turner MIL · Points | 10.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Tyler Herro prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | MIL @ BOS | 3-Pointers Made | Over 2.5 (-126) · DraftKings | 2.5 | 4 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Herro's three-point attempt volume supports the required makes even after reducing his assumed shooting accuracy.
Counter-Case: Boston can remove catch-and-shoot chances and steer Herro into drives or passes. A cold perimeter night can lose the play even with sufficient attempts, especially if Milwaukee's overall scoring stays restrained.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |