By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 24 to Nov 4), Myles Turner's posted assists line has held net flat at 1.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for MIL @ BOS is 2.2 (-182).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL @ PHI | 1.5 (-105) | — | 1 | Under | |
| IND @ MIL | 1.5 (-110) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| HOU @ MIL | 1.5 (-150) | 0.0 | 2 | Over | |
| CLE @ MIL | 1.5 (-120) | 0.0 | 2 | Over | |
| MIL @ MIN | 1.5 (+118) | 0.0 | 2 | Over | |
| MIL @ BOS | 1.5 (-115) | 0.0 | 6 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.3 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.3 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 · @ PHI | 1.5 | — | 1 | -0.5 |
| Oct 26 · vs IND | 1.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +2.5 |
| Oct 28 · vs HOU | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | +0.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs CLE | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | +0.5 |
| Nov 2 · @ MIN | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | +0.5 |
| Nov 4 · @ BOS | 1.5 | 0.0 | 6 | +4.5 |
Turner's normal passing role and expected workload provide a credible route to two assists.
2.1 AST · 26.9 MIN · 7 STARTS — Turner has averaged 2.1 assists in 26.9 minutes while starting all seven games. The 29-minute expectation supports a modest 2.2-assist estimate without requiring him to become a high-usage creator.
31 MIN · 2 AST · 13 PTS LAST GAME — Turner delivered two assists in 31 minutes alongside 13 points in the latest game. That shows passing production can coexist with his ordinary scoring duties rather than requiring a major redistribution of possessions.
Turner can finish pick-and-pop possessions with his own shots instead of passing to a scorer. More minutes for Ware or missed teammate attempts can leave him short of the necessary assists.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WITH 2 OR MORE MYLES TURNER ASSISTS · PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Milwaukee Bucks's 5 primary contributors.
| Milwaukee Bucks Contributor | Oct 31 vs CLE | Nov 2 @ MIN | Nov 4 @ BOS | Nov 6 vs TOR | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro MIL · Points | 21.5 | 20.5 | 19.5 | 20.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIL · Points | 15.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 14.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Brayden Burries MIL · Points | — | 6.5 | 11.5 | 10.5 | +5.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Ryan Rollins MIL · Points | 14.5 | 13.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | -3.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Myles Turner MIL · Points | 10.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Myles Turner prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | MIL @ BOS | Assists | Over 1.5 (-125) · Fanatics | 1.5 | 6 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Turner's normal passing role and expected workload provide a credible route to two assists.
Counter-Case: Turner can finish pick-and-pop possessions with his own shots instead of passing to a scorer. More minutes for Ware or missed teammate attempts can leave him short of the necessary assists.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |