01 · Fundamental Driver
Repeated passing production
5.0 APG · 5 AST LAST GAME — George is averaging five assists and supplied five more in his latest appearance. His passing production is not restricted to a single unusually large assist game.
Posted Line Trajectory: Trending Up (+1.0 over 6 games)Settled / Live Release · Full Dossier Unlocked
Paul George Assists Prop (Boston Celtics @ Charlotte Hornets, ): Fair Line 4.6 (-207) vs 3.5 Market
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
DraftKings: Over 3.5 (-110)Modeled Edge: +22.7% EV · Fair Value 4.6 (-207)
- Pick & Release Line
- OVER 3.5 (-110)
- DraftKings
- Modeled Fair Line
- 4.6
- 1.1 Pt Delta
- Modeled Fair Price
- -207
- +22.7% EV
- Posted Line Drift
- 2.5 → 3.5 (+1.0)
- Last 6 Active Games
- Matchup (CT)
- BOS @ CHA
- NBA Props Lane CLV
- 73 / 11 / 36
- Beat / Tied / Lost
Sportsbook Posted Assists Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (4.6 / -207)
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 27 to Nov 6), sportsbooks adjusted Paul George's posted assists line upward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 2.5 to 3.5 (+1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for BOS @ CHA is 4.6 (-207).
6-Game Posted Assists Ledger (Paul George)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKN @ BOS | 2.5 (-155) | — | 7 | Over | |
| CHI @ BOS | 3.5 (-102) | +1.0 | 8 | Over | |
| BOS @ ORL | 3.5 (+108) | 0.0 | 8 | Over | |
| BOS @ HOU | 3.5 (-130) | 0.0 | — | — | |
| MIL @ BOS | 4.5 (-150) | +1.0 | 5 | Over | |
| BOS @ CHA | 3.5 (-110) | -1.0 | 1 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Lagging Production6-Game Window
Paul George Assists Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Actual output +3.3 vs. +1.0 book step adjustment (+2.3 Unpriced Book Lag).
Unpriced Book Step-Lag+2.3Max Single-Game Book Step: -1.0
- Window Open Line
- 2.5
- Current Posted Line
- 3.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- +1.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 5.8
- Actual Output Delta
- +3.3
- Modeled Fair Value
- 4.6 (-207)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 · vs BKN | 2.5 | — | 7 | +4.5 |
| Oct 30 · vs CHI | 3.5 | +1.0 | 8 | +4.5 |
| Nov 1 · @ ORL | 3.5 | 0.0 | 8 | +4.5 |
| Nov 2 · @ HOU | 3.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
| Nov 4 · vs MIL | 4.5 | +1.0 | 5 | +0.5 |
| Nov 6 · @ CHA | 3.5 | -1.0 | 1 | -2.5 |
WagerBird Write-Up · Paul George Assists (Over 3.5)
Full Dossier UnlockedWrite-Up Thesis
George's regular wing attacks provide a passing route without requiring him to dominate possession.
02 · Fundamental Driver
Finishers around the wing
4.6 PROJECTED AST · 32 EXPECTED MIN — The expected 32-minute workload leaves room for 4.6 assists without increasing his current passing output. Tatum's return adds a finishing option when George attacks, even though it also redistributes the initiation work.
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
The returning lead creator can absorb the initiation work and leave this wing as a catch-and-shoot option. Missed kick-outs or an early separation on the scoreboard would cut the chances to reach the needed passing total.
Settlement Rule: CASHES PAUL GEORGE OVER 3.5 ASSISTS WITH 4 OR MORE ASSISTS; NO PUSH AT THIS LINE.
WagerBird Nucleus Drift · Team Prop Signal
BOS @ CHA · Boston Celtics Points Nucleus Drift ()
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Boston Celtics's 5 primary contributors.
BOS Nucleus Drift5 of 5 Core Props Adjusted DownMarket Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
| Boston Celtics Contributor | Nov 1 @ ORL | Nov 2 @ HOU | Nov 4 vs MIL | Nov 6 @ CHA | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum BOS · Points | 26.5 | 27.5 | 27.5 | 26.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Paul George BOS · Points | 18.5 | 17.5 | 21.5 | 17.5 | -4.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Derrick White BOS · Points | 13.5 | 14.5 | 17.5 | 13.5 | -4.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Payton Pritchard BOS · Points | 14.5 | 15.5 | 19.5 | 13.5 | -6.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Neemias Queta BOS · Points | 9.5 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Boston Celtics (BOS)5 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Down
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Charlotte Hornets (CHA)2 of 4 Core Props Adjusted Up
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team dossiers.
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up
Paul George Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 1 Lost)
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Paul George prop write-up.
Paul George CLV Counts
0 Beat · 0 Tied · 1 Lost
1 Settled CLV Receipt| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | BOS @ CHA | Assists | Over 3.5 (-122) · DraftKings | 3.5 | 1 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Paul George Prop Write-Ups
Nov 6 CT · BOS @ CHA · AssistsFull Write-Up →
George's regular wing attacks provide a passing route without requiring him to dominate possession.
Counter-Case: The returning lead creator can absorb the initiation work and leave this wing as a catch-and-shoot option. Missed kick-outs or an early separation on the scoreboard would cut the chances to reach the needed passing total.
NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |