By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 2 active games (Oct 20 to Oct 23), sportsbooks adjusted Landry Shamet's posted points line downward in 1 of 1 game-over-game steps from 7.5 to 6.5 (-1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for NYK @ BOS is 8.5 (-299).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ NYK | 7.5 (-110) | — | 5 | Under | |
| NYK @ BOS | 6.5 (-114) | -1.0 | 8 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (-1.0) tracks actual window production (-1.0).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · vs PHI | 7.5 | — | 5 | -2.5 |
| Oct 23 · @ BOS | 6.5 | -1.0 | 8 | +1.5 |
Shamet's regular bench workload and perimeter attempt volume support reaching seven points without an expanded role.
24:31 OPENER · 22 MIN PROJECTED — Shamet played 24:31 in the opener and took seven shots even though he finished with only five points. A projected 22-minute shift preserves a useful scoring opportunity without requiring the same full workload again.
5.2 3PA · 39.2% 3P — Last season Shamet attempted 5.2 threes per game and converted 39.2% of them. That shot diet lets several ordinary possessions supply most of the required scoring, with a smaller contribution needed inside the arc or at the foul line.
A shorter bench shift can make Shamet dependent on only a few jumpers. Two made threes alone leave him short, so he still needs another scoring contribution. A slow possession game can remove the extra attempt that supplies it.
Settlement Rule: CASHES LANDRY SHAMET OVER 6.5 POINTS WITH SEVEN OR MORE POINTS; NO PUSH ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across New York Knicks's 5 primary contributors.
| New York Knicks Contributor | Oct 30 @ PHI | Nov 2 vs BKN | Nov 4 vs CHI | Nov 7 @ CLE | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson NYK · Points | 26.5 | 23.5 | 25.5 | 26.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Karl-Anthony Towns NYK · Points | 19.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 19.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| OG Anunoby NYK · Points | 16.5 | 16.5 | 17.5 | 16.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Mikal Bridges NYK · Points | 9.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Josh Hart NYK · Points | 10.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | — | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
0 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Landry Shamet prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | NYK @ BOS | Points | Over 6.5 (-125) · Caesars | 6.5 | 8 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
Shamet's regular bench workload and perimeter attempt volume support reaching seven points without an expanded role.
Counter-Case: A shorter bench shift can make Shamet dependent on only a few jumpers. Two made threes alone leave him short, so he still needs another scoring contribution. A slow possession game can remove the extra attempt that supplies it.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |