By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 2 active games (Oct 21 to Oct 23), Keaton Wagler's posted 3-pointers made line has held net flat at 1.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for LAC @ LAL is 2.3 (-202).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC @ LAC | 1.5 (-105) | — | 3 | Over | |
| LAC @ LAL | 1.5 (+105) | 0.0 | 2 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.0 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.0 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · vs SAC | 1.5 | — | 3 | +1.5 |
| Oct 23 · @ LAL | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | +0.5 |
Wagler's demonstrated willingness to attempt threes supplies a credible path to multiple makes.
6 THREE-POINT ATTEMPTS · 29 MIN — Wagler's NBA debut gave him repeated chances to shoot rather than a passive spot in the offense. Continued wing opportunities can preserve that attempt volume even without exceptional accuracy.
39.7% FROM THREE · 37 COLLEGE GAMES — His college shooting provides a foundation for using him as a perimeter option. Combined with his preseason willingness to fire, it supports attempts remaining part of his offensive responsibility.
The Lakers can run Wagler off the arc and force him to drive. A shorter stint or more possessions ending with Garland can leave too few attempts for a second make.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WITH KEATON WAGLER MAKING AT LEAST TWO THREE-POINTERS; NO PUSH AT 1.5.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Los Angeles Clippers's 5 primary contributors.
| Los Angeles Clippers Contributor | Nov 1 @ GSW | Nov 2 vs TOR | Nov 4 vs MIA | Nov 8 vs NOP | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Garland LAC · Points | 23.5 | 22.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Rui Hachimura LAC · Points | 15.5 | 17.5 | 14.5 | 16.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Keaton Wagler LAC · Points | 13.5 | 14.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Brook Lopez LAC · Points | 9.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. LAC · Points | 10.5 | — | 10.5 | 11.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Keaton Wagler prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | LAC @ LAL | 3-Pointers Made | Over 1.5 (-133) · DraftKings | 1.5 | 2 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Wagler's demonstrated willingness to attempt threes supplies a credible path to multiple makes.
Counter-Case: The Lakers can run Wagler off the arc and force him to drive. A shorter stint or more possessions ending with Garland can leave too few attempts for a second make.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 7 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 9 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |