By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 24 to Nov 4), Jamal Murray's posted 3-pointers made line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for TOR @ DEN is 4.0 (-320).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOP @ DEN | 2.5 (-162) | — | 8 | Over | |
| GSW @ DEN | 2.5 (-165) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| DEN @ NOP | 2.5 (-148) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| DEN @ PHX | 2.5 (-138) | 0.0 | 7 | Over | |
| POR @ DEN | 2.5 (-146) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| TOR @ DEN | 2.5 (-165) | 0.0 | 2 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +2.3 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+2.3 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 · vs NOP | 2.5 | — | 8 | +5.5 |
| Oct 26 · vs GSW | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 28 · @ NOP | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 30 · @ PHX | 2.5 | 0.0 | 7 | +4.5 |
| Nov 2 · vs POR | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs TOR | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
Murray's sustained perimeter volume provides enough attempts to reach three makes even after his early accuracy is reduced.
8.7 3PA · 38.3 MPG — Murray is taking 8.7 threes per game while averaging 38.3 minutes. His latest four makes came on nine attempts, showing that the opportunity base extends beyond a single unusually accurate night.
43.5% PRIOR 3P · 8.3 PROJECTED 3PA — Last season's 43.5% three-point shooting provides a more restrained anchor than his current hot start. Approximately 8.3 attempts in the projected workload still produce a central estimate of 4.0 makes.
Toronto can chase Murray away from clean perimeter catches and make him drive or pass. A slower game consistent with the lower-total script would also reduce his attempt cushion.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JAMAL MURRAY THREES OVER 2.5 WITH AT LEAST THREE MADE THREES; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Denver Nuggets's 5 primary contributors.
| Denver Nuggets Contributor | Oct 30 @ PHX | Nov 2 vs POR | Nov 4 vs TOR | Nov 7 @ IND | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokić DEN · Points | 25.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 25.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jamal Murray DEN · Points | 22.5 | 22.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Aaron Gordon DEN · Points | 14.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Christian Braun DEN · Points | 11.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Cameron Johnson DEN · Points | 10.5 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Jamal Murray prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | TOR @ DEN | 3-Pointers Made | Over 2.5 (-165) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Murray's sustained perimeter volume provides enough attempts to reach three makes even after his early accuracy is reduced.
Counter-Case: Toronto can chase Murray away from clean perimeter catches and make him drive or pass. A slower game consistent with the lower-total script would also reduce his attempt cushion.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |