By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 5 active games (Oct 20 to Oct 30), Derrick White's posted 3-pointers made line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for CHI @ BOS is 2.2 (-165).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS @ DET | 2.5 (+105) | — | 3 | Over | |
| NYK @ BOS | 2.5 (-115) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| CHI @ BOS | 2.5 (-111) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| BKN @ BOS | 2.5 (+100) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| CHI @ BOS | 2.5 (+100) | 0.0 | 1 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (-0.9).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · @ DET | 2.5 | — | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 23 · vs NYK | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 26 · vs CHI | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Oct 27 · vs BKN | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Oct 30 · vs CHI | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
White's current attempt volume leaves three made threes dependent on an efficient night rather than a large shooting workload.
5.5 3PA · 1.8 3PM · 31.8% 3P — White has averaged 5.5 three-point attempts and 1.8 makes, shooting 31.8% in the four-game sample. At that attempt volume, reaching three makes requires either stronger conversion or more perimeter opportunities than his average workload has supplied.
LATEST 33 MIN · 1-FOR-7 FROM THREE — White played 33 minutes and attempted seven threes in the latest completed game, making one. His other three-point lines were three-for-seven, two-for-six and one-for-two, so playing time alone has not consistently carried him to three makes.
Chicago could send extra help toward Boston's primary creators and repeatedly leave White open beyond the arc. Quick early makes could encourage additional attempts. Boston's projected scoring output can defeat this selection if White supplies a disproportionate share of it.
Settlement Rule: CASHES DERRICK WHITE FULL GAME MADE THREES UNDER 2.5 WITH ZERO TO TWO MADE THREES; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Boston Celtics's 5 primary contributors.
| Boston Celtics Contributor | Nov 1 @ ORL | Nov 2 @ HOU | Nov 4 vs MIL | Nov 6 @ CHA | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum BOS · Points | 26.5 | 27.5 | 27.5 | 26.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Paul George BOS · Points | 18.5 | 17.5 | 21.5 | 17.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Derrick White BOS · Points | 13.5 | 14.5 | 17.5 | 13.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Payton Pritchard BOS · Points | 14.5 | 15.5 | 19.5 | 13.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Neemias Queta BOS · Points | 9.5 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
2 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Derrick White prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | BOS @ CHA | Points | Under 14.5 (-124) · DraftKings | 13.5 | 18 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 30 | CHI @ BOS | 3-Pointers Made | Under 2.5 (-120) · DraftKings | 2.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Tatum's return reduces the need for White to repeat the shooting and free-throw workload of his latest appearance.
Counter-Case: Extra ball-handling when the bench backcourt is short-handed could keep his attempt count elevated. Drives that draw fouls or a productive pull-up shooting night would defeat the expected scoring restraint.
White's current attempt volume leaves three made threes dependent on an efficient night rather than a large shooting workload.
Counter-Case: Chicago could send extra help toward Boston's primary creators and repeatedly leave White open beyond the arc. Quick early makes could encourage additional attempts. Boston's projected scoring output can defeat this selection if White supplies a disproportionate share of it.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |