The cards below mirror the order the classifier evaluates in. Each card includes the exact trigger conditions from the master brief and a real MLB team you can open in a new tab to see how the chart looks when the state applies.
NEED_MORE_GAMES
Need More Games
Not enough data in the active view to compute the classifier honestly. When the active subset has fewer than 25 games or any required moving average cannot be computed, the classifier returns NEED_MORE_GAMES. The chart still renders the dots, but no form badge, no envelope, no signal. The right action is to switch the view: change Home to All Games, or change F5 to FG, or wait a week.
Trigger conditions (either is sufficient)
- · Subset contains fewer than 25 games.
- · Any required MA window cannot be computed.
SHIFTING_UP
Shifting Up
A real upward crossover just fired. MA(5) crossed MA(20) within the last three games, with a meaningful spread and a meaningful slope. All three filters from the crossover-detection rule must pass. Then the state is split into four sub-buckets by the spread magnitude. The sub-bucket is critical for pattern identification in Module 3. The 1.0 to 1.5 sweet-spot bucket is the only direct UP signal in the entire Method. The other three buckets carry inverse or no signal.
All three conditions must hold
- · Crossover age is at most 3 games.
- · |MA(5) - MA(20)| > 0.5 runs per game.
- · |slope_5| > 0.15 runs per game per game.
// SPREAD BUCKETS- · marginal (0.5 < spread <= 1.0) — Pattern: False Spark Fade. Bet UNDER.
- · sweet (1.0 < spread <= 1.5) — Pattern: Sweet Crossover. Bet OVER.
- · strong (1.5 < spread <= 2.0) — Noise Bands. No pick.
- · extreme (spread > 2.0) — Volcano Top. Bet UNDER.
SHIFTING_DOWN
Shifting Down
A real downward crossover just fired. Mirror of Shifting Up with the same three filters. Spread is negative. Same filters. Same four sub-buckets, mirrored on the negative side. The sweet-spot bucket on the down side carries a UNDER read (Settling Frost). The extreme bucket on the down side carries the inverse OVER read (Capitulation Bounce) because run distributions floor at zero and reversion compresses upward from the bottom.
All three conditions must hold
- · Crossover age is at most 3 games.
- · |MA(5) - MA(20)| > 0.5 runs per game.
- · |slope_5| > 0.15 runs per game per game.
// SPREAD BUCKETS- · marginal (-1.0 <= spread < -0.5) — Noise Bands. No pick.
- · sweet (-1.5 <= spread < -1.0) — Pattern: Settling Frost. Bet UNDER.
- · strong (-2.0 <= spread < -1.5) — Noise Bands. No pick.
- · extreme (spread < -2.0) — Pattern: Capitulation Bounce. Bet OVER.
HEATING_UP
Heating Up
Sustained recent above baseline. The cross is older than three games but the trend is still positive. Once SHIFTING_UP graduates past the three-game crossover window, the state transitions to HEATING_UP if the trend keeps going. The naive read here is OVER (the team has been hot, bet on it continuing). The Method reads it the other way. The Hot Hand Fade is the gambler's-fallacy pattern that flips this naive read into a UNDER call.
All three conditions must hold
- · MA(5) > MA(20) + 0.5 runs per game.
- · slope_5 > 0.15 runs per game per game.
- · slope_20 > 0.
COOLING_OFF
Cooling Off
Sustained recent below baseline. Cold streaks persist longer than hot streaks. Mirror of HEATING_UP. The naive read is that the team is due for a bounce-back. The Method reads it as a continuation: bet the under. Why? Cold streaks persist longer than hot streaks in baseball. The floor at zero limits reversion potential. Structural causes (injuries, slumps, lineup issues) take time to resolve. The Cold Drift pattern is direct, not inverse: cold is cold and stays cold.
All three conditions must hold
- · MA(5) < MA(20) - 0.5 runs per game.
- · slope_5 < -0.15 runs per game per game.
- · slope_20 < 0.
STEADY
Steady
The default state. None of the directional conditions fired. The team is producing normally. STEADY is what you get when |MA(5) - MA(20)| is at or below 0.5 runs per game, OR when the slope filters fail, OR when any combination simply does not satisfy the four named directional states. Steady teams do not fire single-team patterns. They DO participate in the joint matrix. A STEADY-by-STEADY matchup is the Dead Zone pattern: skip the game.
Default state. Triggered when:
- · |MA(5) - MA(20)| <= 0.5 runs per game, OR
- · Any combination that does not satisfy SHIFTING, HEATING_UP, or COOLING_OFF.