Posted Line Trajectory: Flat (0.0 over 6 games)Settled / Live Release · Full Dossier Unlocked

William Nylander Shots on Goal Prop (Toronto Maple Leafs @ Vancouver Canucks, Oct 31, 6:00 PM CT): Fair Line 3 (-133) vs 2.5 Market

Name: William Nylander Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory & TOR @ VAN Nucleus Drift
Creator: WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk
Published: 2026-10-30T20:46:40+00:00

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released Fri, Oct 30, 3:46 PM CT · Last updated (CT) Sat, Nov 7, 10:58 AM CT

FanDuel: Over 2.5 (-132)Modeled Edge: +12.9% EV · Fair Value 3 (-133)

Pick & Release Line: OVER 2.5 (-132); FanDuel
Modeled Fair Line: 3; 0.5 Pt Delta
Modeled Fair Price: -133; +12.9% EV
Posted Line Drift: 2.5 → 2.5 (0.0); Last 6 Active Games
Matchup (CT): TOR @ VAN; Oct 31, 6:00 PM CT
NHL Props Lane CLV: 50 / 10 / 21; Beat / Tied / Lost

Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)

Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.

Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (3 / -133)

Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 20 to Oct 31), William Nylander's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for TOR @ VAN is 3 (-133).

6-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (William Nylander)

America/Chicago (CT)

Date (CT)	Matchup	Posted Line	Move	Actual	Result
Oct 20	TOR @ CBJ	2.5 (+102)	—	2	Under
Oct 22	NYR @ TOR	2.5 (-110)	0.0	1	Under
Oct 24	TOR @ EDM	2.5 (-102)	0.0	3	Over
Oct 26	TOR @ CGY	2.5 (-110)	0.0	4	Over
Oct 28	TOR @ SEA	2.5 (-120)	0.0	3	Over
Oct 31	TOR @ VAN	2.5 (-132)	0.0	2	Under

Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.

Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).

FanDuel: Over 2.5 (-132)DraftKings: Over 2.5 (-132)BetMGM: Over 2.5 (-132)Caesars: Over 2.5 (-132)Trade on Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Balanced Pricing6-Game Window

William Nylander Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)

Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (0.0).

Unpriced Book Step-Lag0.0Max Single-Game Book Step: 0.0

Window Open Line: 2.5
Current Posted Line: 2.5
Book Cumulative Step: 0.0
Actual Window Avg: 2.5
Actual Output Delta: 0.0
Modeled Fair Value: 3 (-133)

Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output

Book Line Actual Stat

Game (CT)	Posted Line	Book Step	Actual	Box Surplus
Oct 20 · @ CBJ	2.5	—	2	-0.5
Oct 22 · vs NYR	2.5	0.0	1	-1.5
Oct 24 · @ EDM	2.5	0.0	3	+0.5
Oct 26 · @ CGY	2.5	0.0	4	+1.5
Oct 28 · @ SEA	2.5	0.0	3	+0.5
Oct 31 · @ VAN	2.5	0.0	2	-0.5

WagerBird Write-Up · William Nylander Shots on Goal (Over 2.5)

Full Dossier Unlocked

Write-Up Thesis

Nylander's regular shooting workload and first-unit power-play role face an opponent allowing substantial shot volume.

01 · Fundamental Driver

A regular shooting role

44 SOG · 15 GP · 20:08 TOI/G — Nylander has 44 shots in 15 games while averaging 20:08, and his current rate of 2.93 per game exceeds last season's 2.40. He plays beside Cowan and Paul at even strength and on the first power-play unit, giving him routes to shooting opportunities in both situations. [252.81–91]

02 · Fundamental Driver

Room to generate attempts

33.54 SA/GP · 13 GP · 64.4% PK — Vancouver has allowed 33.54 shots per game across 13 games, with a 64.4% penalty kill. That combination can give Nylander opportunities to sustain attacks and collect attempts on special teams without needing a high-scoring Toronto win.

Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors

Thesis Invalidation Risks

If Toronto's first power play funnels attempts through Matthews and Raddysh, Nylander can spend possessions distributing rather than shooting. Fewer clean zone entries or repeated Toronto penalties can leave him at two shots despite normal ice time.

Settlement Rule: CASHES WILLIAM NYLANDER OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH 3 OR MORE OFFICIAL SHOTS; NO PUSH ON THE HALF.

WagerBird Nucleus Drift · Team Prop Signal

TOR @ VAN · Toronto Maple Leafs Shots on Goal Nucleus Drift (Oct 31, 6:00 PM CT)

Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Toronto Maple Leafs's 5 primary contributors.

TOR Nucleus Drift5 of 5 Core Props Held FlatBalanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral

Toronto Maple Leafs Contributor	Oct 28 @ SEA	Oct 31 @ VAN	Nov 3 vs UTA	Nov 7 vs MON	Trend Badge
Auston Matthews TOR · Shots on Goal	3.5	3.5	2.5	3.5	Flat →
Darren Raddysh TOR · Shots on Goal	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	Flat →
William Nylander TOR · Shots on Goal	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	Flat →
Jack Roslovic TOR · Shots on Goal	2.5	2.5	2.5	—	Flat →
Morgan Rielly TOR · Shots on Goal	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	Flat →

Toronto Maple Leafs (TOR)5 of 5 Core Props Held Flat

Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral

Vancouver Canucks (VAN)5 of 5 Core Props Held Flat

Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral

Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team dossiers.

Toronto Maple Leafs team page →

Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up

William Nylander Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (1 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)

1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled William Nylander prop write-up.

William Nylander CLV Counts

1 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost

1 Settled CLV Receipt

Date (CT)	Matchup	Market	Release Quote	Closing Line	Actual	CLV Grade	Write-Up
Oct 31	TOR @ VAN	Shots on Goal	Over 2.5 (-102) · FanDuel	2.5	2	Beat	Read Write-Up →

Archived Settled William Nylander Prop Write-Ups

Oct 31 CT · TOR @ VAN · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →

Nylander's regular shooting workload and first-unit power-play role face an opponent allowing substantial shot volume.

Counter-Case: If Toronto's first power play funnels attempts through Matthews and Raddysh, Nylander can spend possessions distributing rather than shooting. Fewer clean zone entries or repeated Toronto penalties can leave him at two shots despite normal ice time.

NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)

WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)

Prop Lane Window	Beat Close	Tied Close	Lost Close
Season to date (from Sep 23 CT)	50	10	21
Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT)	48	9	21