By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 10 to Oct 21), Tage Thompson's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 3.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for PHI @ BUF is 4.3 (-159).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA @ BUF | 3.5 (+120) | — | 6 | Over | |
| FLA @ BUF | 3.5 (+110) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| BUF @ MON | 2.5 (-156) | -1.0 | 1 | Under | |
| BUF @ TOR | 3.5 (+105) | +1.0 | 6 | Over | |
| BUF @ MON | 3.5 (+120) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| PHI @ BUF | 3.5 (+106) | 0.0 | 3 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.2).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 · vs UTA | 3.5 | — | 6 | +2.5 |
| Oct 12 · vs FLA | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Oct 13 · @ MON | 2.5 | -1.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Oct 15 · @ TOR | 3.5 | +1.0 | 6 | +2.5 |
| Oct 17 · @ MON | 3.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +1.5 |
| Oct 21 · vs PHI | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
Thompson's heavy shooting workload meets a defense allowing sustained shot volume.
42 S · 9 GP · 19:58 TOI — Thompson has taken 42 shots in nine games while averaging 19:58. His prior 272-shot season supports a substantial shooting role rather than a case built only on recent finishing.
32.27 OPPONENT SA/GP · PP1 — Philadelphia allows 32.27 shots per game, giving Buffalo room to sustain offensive-zone possessions. Thompson's first-unit assignment adds another route to repeated attempts when the defense cannot clear.
A quick Buffalo lead can reduce the need for sustained shooting and turn possessions into clock management. Philadelphia can also block Thompson's attempts or force him to distribute from the perimeter instead of putting the puck on net.
Settlement Rule: CASHES IF TAGE THOMPSON RECORDS AT LEAST FOUR FULL GAME SHOTS ON GOAL; NO PUSH AT 3.5.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Buffalo Sabres's 5 primary contributors.
| Buffalo Sabres Contributor | Oct 29 @ ANA | Oct 31 @ LA | Nov 4 vs OTT | Nov 6 vs CBJ | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson BUF · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jack Quinn BUF · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Rasmus Dahlin BUF · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Owen Power BUF · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Olen Zellweger BUF · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
2 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 3 settled Tage Thompson prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | OTT @ BUF | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (-102) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 2 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 21 | PHI @ BUF | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+108) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 3 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 17 | BUF @ MON | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+125) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 5 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Thompson’s sustained shooting workload and top-unit deployment support reaching four shots without needing a high-scoring game.
Counter-Case: Ottawa can force Thompson’s releases into blocks or misses instead of saves. A Buffalo lead can reduce the late attacking pressure that would otherwise supply another shooting opportunity.
Thompson's heavy shooting workload meets a defense allowing sustained shot volume.
Counter-Case: A quick Buffalo lead can reduce the need for sustained shooting and turn possessions into clock management. Philadelphia can also block Thompson's attempts or force him to distribute from the perimeter instead of putting the puck on net.
Thompson's top-line and first-unit shooting opportunities give him a credible route to four shots without requiring a scoring breakout.
Counter-Case: Montreal can close the one-timer lane and force Thompson's attempts into blocks or wide of the net. Long defensive-zone shifts would cut his attempts even if Buffalo keeps the score close.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |