NHL Player Prop & CLV DossierTeam: BUFPosted Line Trajectory: Flat (0.0 over 6 games)

Tage Thompson (NHL) Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory & CLV Record

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)

NHL Player Props CLV Counts
50 Beat · 10 Tied · 21 Lost
Tage Thompson Releases: 2 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost

Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)

Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game.

Posted Book Line
Across the last 6 active games (Oct 24 to Nov 6), Tage Thompson's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 3.5.4.54.13.73.32.92.53.53.53.53.53.53.5Oct 24BUF @ WASOct 27BUF @ SJOct 29BUF @ ANAOct 31BUF @ LANov 4OTT @ BUFNov 6CBJ @ BUF

Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 24 to Nov 6), Tage Thompson's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 3.5.

6-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Tage Thompson)

America/Chicago (CT)
Date (CT)MatchupPosted LineMoveActualResult
BUF @ WAS3.5 (+108)—0Under
BUF @ SJ3.5 (+104)0.06Over
BUF @ ANA3.5 (+114)0.04Over
BUF @ LA3.5 (+125)0.08Over
OTT @ BUF3.5 (+108)0.02Under
CBJ @ BUF3.5 (-108)0.03Under

Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.

Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Balanced Pricing6-Game Window

Tage Thompson Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)

Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.3).

Unpriced Book Step-Lag+0.3Max Single-Game Book Step: 0.0
Window Open Line
3.5
Current Posted Line
3.5
Book Cumulative Step
0.0
Actual Window Avg
3.8
Actual Output Delta
+0.3
Modeled Fair Value
—
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
Tage Thompson Sticky Book Anchoring Meter: 6-game Posted Shots on Goal Line vs Actual Box-Score Output1000Oct 24@ WAS6Oct 27@ SJ4Oct 29@ ANA8Oct 31@ LA2Nov 4vs OTT3Nov 6vs CBJ
Game (CT)Posted LineBook StepActualBox Surplus
Oct 24 · @ WAS3.5—0-3.5
Oct 27 · @ SJ3.50.06+2.5
Oct 29 · @ ANA3.50.04+0.5
Oct 31 · @ LA3.50.08+4.5
Nov 4 · vs OTT3.50.02-1.5
Nov 6 · vs CBJ3.50.03-0.5
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault3 Tracked Write-Ups

Tage Thompson Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (2 Beat, 0 Tied, 1 Lost)

2 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 3 settled Tage Thompson prop write-ups.

Tage Thompson CLV Counts
2 Beat · 0 Tied · 1 Lost
3 Settled CLV Receipts
Date (CT)MatchupMarketRelease QuoteClosing LineActualCLV GradeWrite-Up
Nov 4OTT @ BUFShots on GoalOver 3.5 (-102) · FanDuel3.52LostRead Write-Up →
Oct 21PHI @ BUFShots on GoalOver 3.5 (+108) · FanDuel3.53BeatRead Write-Up →
Oct 17BUF @ MONShots on GoalOver 3.5 (+125) · FanDuel3.55BeatRead Write-Up →

Archived Settled Tage Thompson Prop Write-Ups

Nov 4 CT · OTT @ BUF · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →

Thompson’s sustained shooting workload and top-unit deployment support reaching four shots without needing a high-scoring game.

Counter-Case: Ottawa can force Thompson’s releases into blocks or misses instead of saves. A Buffalo lead can reduce the late attacking pressure that would otherwise supply another shooting opportunity.

Oct 21 CT · PHI @ BUF · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →

Thompson's heavy shooting workload meets a defense allowing sustained shot volume.

Counter-Case: A quick Buffalo lead can reduce the need for sustained shooting and turn possessions into clock management. Philadelphia can also block Thompson's attempts or force him to distribute from the perimeter instead of putting the puck on net.

Oct 17 CT · BUF @ MON · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →

Thompson's top-line and first-unit shooting opportunities give him a credible route to four shots without requiring a scoring breakout.

Counter-Case: Montreal can close the one-timer lane and force Thompson's attempts into blocks or wide of the net. Long defensive-zone shifts would cut his attempts even if Buffalo keeps the score close.

Tage Thompson WagerBird Prop Release & CLV Archive

Date (CT)MatchupMarketReleaseCloseActualCLV Grade
Nov 4OTT @ BUFShots on GoalOver 3.53.52Lost
Oct 21PHI @ BUFShots on GoalOver 3.53.53Beat
Oct 17BUF @ MONShots on GoalOver 3.53.55Beat

NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)

WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)
Prop Lane WindowBeat CloseTied CloseLost Close
Season to date (from Sep 23 CT)501021
Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT)48921