By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Christian Dvorak's points line at 0.5 for PHI @ BUF (Oct 21). WagerBird's modeled fair line for PHI @ BUF is 0.5 (-158).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ BUF | 0.5 (+105) | — | 0 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (0.0).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 · vs CAR | — | — | 1 | — |
| Oct 13 · vs SEA | — | — | 1 | — |
| Oct 15 · @ DET | — | — | 0 | — |
| Oct 17 · vs OTT | — | — | 1 | — |
| Oct 19 · vs COL | — | — | 0 | — |
| Oct 21 · @ BUF | 0.5 | — | 0 | -0.5 |
Dvorak's current scoring involvement and absence from the first power-play group leave relatively few premium routes to a point.
4 P · 11 GP · 17:26 TOI — Dvorak has four points in 11 games despite averaging 17:26. The distinction matters because a long shift total is not enough unless he touches the puck in the final scoring sequence.
51 P · 80 GP PRIOR SEASON — His prior 51-point season shows a credible scoring ceiling, but he is outside the current first power-play group. That leaves more of his point opportunity dependent on even-strength execution with Zegras and Acciari.
Zegras can create a clean chance that Dvorak finishes or helps set up. An Acciari conversion or late extra-attacker possession can also bring Dvorak into a scoring sequence without a large individual workload.
Settlement Rule: CASHES IF CHRISTIAN DVORAK RECORDS ZERO FULL GAME POINTS; NO PUSH AT 0.5.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Philadelphia Flyers's 5 primary contributors.
| Philadelphia Flyers Contributor | Oct 28 @ WAS | Nov 1 vs UTA | Nov 3 vs MIN | Nov 5 @ NYR | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Zegras PHI · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Matvei Michkov PHI · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Christian Dvorak PHI · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Sean Couturier PHI · Shots on Goal | — | — | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Porter Martone PHI · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
0 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Christian Dvorak prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | PHI @ BUF | Points | Under 0.5 (-125) · BetMGM | 0.5 | 0 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
Dvorak's current scoring involvement and absence from the first power-play group leave relatively few premium routes to a point.
Counter-Case: Zegras can create a clean chance that Dvorak finishes or helps set up. An Acciari conversion or late extra-attacker possession can also bring Dvorak into a scoring sequence without a large individual workload.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |