01 · Fundamental Driver
Sustained attempts
130 SHOTS · 70 GP — Theodore put 130 shots on goal in 70 games last season. That 1.86-per-game history puts the two-shot requirement near his established output rather than requiring a scoring event.
Posted Line Trajectory: Opening CaptureSettled / Live Release · Full Dossier Unlocked
Shea Theodore Shots on Goal Prop (Los Angeles Kings @ Vegas Golden Knights, ): Fair Line 2.2 (-182) vs 1.5 Market
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
FanDuel: Over 1.5 (-115)Modeled Edge: +14.2% EV · Fair Value 2.2 (-182)
- Pick & Release Line
- OVER 1.5 (-115)
- DraftKings
- Modeled Fair Line
- 2.2
- 0.7 Pt Delta
- Modeled Fair Price
- -182
- +14.2% EV
- Posted Line Drift
- 1.5
- Last 1 Active Games
- Matchup (CT)
- LA @ VEG
- NHL Props Lane CLV
- 50 / 10 / 21
- Beat / Tied / Lost
Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 1 Active Game)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (2.2 / -182)
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Shea Theodore's shots on goal line at 1.5 for LA @ VEG (Oct 10). WagerBird's modeled fair line for LA @ VEG is 2.2 (-182).
1-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Shea Theodore)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA @ VEG | 1.5 (-115) | — | 1 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Lagging Production6-Game Window
Shea Theodore Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Actual output +1.0 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.0 Unpriced Book Lag).
Unpriced Book Step-Lag+1.0Max Single-Game Book Step: -1.0
- Window Open Line
- 1.5
- Current Posted Line
- 1.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- 0.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 2.5
- Actual Output Delta
- +1.0
- Modeled Fair Value
- 2.2 (-182)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29 · vs CHI | 1.5 | — | 1 | -0.5 |
| Oct 2 · vs ANA | 1.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +2.5 |
| Oct 4 · @ VAN | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | +0.5 |
| Oct 6 · @ SEA | 2.5 | +1.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Oct 8 · vs TOR | 1.5 | -1.0 | 3 | +1.5 |
| Oct 10 · vs LA | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -0.5 |
WagerBird Write-Up · Shea Theodore Shots on Goal (Over 1.5)
Full Dossier UnlockedWrite-Up Thesis
Theodore's first-pair minutes and early shot volume support two credited shots.
02 · Fundamental Driver
Opening activity
11 SHOTS · 4 GP · 21–23 MIN — His first four games produced 11 shots, or 2.75 per game. First-pair deployment and 21–23 expected minutes give him recurring chances to release from the blue line.
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
Los Angeles can block his point attempts before they reach the goalie. Protecting against Panarin and Kempe may also keep Theodore farther from shooting lanes during his first-pair shifts.
Settlement Rule: CASHES SHEA THEODORE OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH TWO OR MORE CREDITED SHOTS IN REGULATION OR OVERTIME; NO PUSH.
WagerBird Nucleus Drift · Team Prop Signal
LA @ VEG · Vegas Golden Knights Shots on Goal Nucleus Drift ()
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Vegas Golden Knights's 4 primary contributors.
VEG Nucleus Drift4 of 4 Core Props Held FlatBalanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
| Vegas Golden Knights Contributor | Oct 30 vs NJ | Nov 2 @ BOS | Nov 3 @ PIT | Nov 5 @ DET | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel VEG · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Mitch Marner VEG · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Tomas Hertl VEG · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Shea Theodore VEG · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Vegas Golden Knights (VEG)4 of 4 Core Props Held Flat
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Los Angeles Kings (LA)1 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Down
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team dossiers.
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up
Shea Theodore Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (1 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Shea Theodore prop write-up.
Shea Theodore CLV Counts
1 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost
1 Settled CLV Receipt| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | LA @ VEG | Shots on Goal | Over 1.5 (-130) · FanDuel | 1.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Shea Theodore Prop Write-Ups
Oct 10 CT · LA @ VEG · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →
Theodore's first-pair minutes and early shot volume support two credited shots.
Counter-Case: Los Angeles can block his point attempts before they reach the goalie. Protecting against Panarin and Kempe may also keep Theodore farther from shooting lanes during his first-pair shifts.
NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |