By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 2 active games (Oct 17 to Oct 19), Macklin Celebrini's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 3.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for SJ @ TOR is 4.1 (-144).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJ @ DET | 3.5 (+115) | — | 7 | Over | |
| SJ @ TOR | 3.5 (-110) | 0.0 | 5 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.9).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 · vs LA | 3.5 | — | 2 | -1.5 |
| Oct 5 · @ DAL | 2.5 | -1.0 | — | — |
| Oct 13 · vs BOS | 3.5 | +1.0 | 5 | +1.5 |
| Oct 15 · @ NAS | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Oct 17 · @ DET | 3.5 | 0.0 | 7 | +3.5 |
| Oct 19 · @ TOR | 3.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +1.5 |
Celebrini's heavy workload and established shot generation support a high-volume night without requiring unusually efficient finishing.
26 SOG · 6 GP · 22:50 TOI — Celebrini has produced 26 shots in six appearances while averaging 22:50. His first-line center assignment keeps him involved in the possessions most likely to generate San Jose's chances.
287 PRIOR SOG · 82 GP · 4:28 PP — Last season's 287 shots in 82 games establish a substantial shooting base. His current 4:28 average power-play workload adds attacking time with San Jose's leading unit rather than relying exclusively on even-strength shifts.
Toronto can force Celebrini to pass on entries and deny his preferred shooting lane. If the Sharks spend extended shifts defending, even his heavy workload can finish with too few clean releases.
Settlement Rule: CASHES MACKLIN CELEBRINI FULL GAME SHOTS ON GOAL OVER 3.5 WITH AT LEAST 4 OFFICIAL SOG; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across San Jose Sharks's 5 primary contributors.
| San Jose Sharks Contributor | Nov 2 vs CGY | Nov 4 @ LA | Nov 6 @ MIN | Nov 7 @ DAL | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini SJ · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Will Smith SJ · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jacob Trouba SJ · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Darnell Nurse SJ · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Mason Marchment SJ · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
0 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Macklin Celebrini prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | SJ @ TOR | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (-115) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 5 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
Celebrini's heavy workload and established shot generation support a high-volume night without requiring unusually efficient finishing.
Counter-Case: Toronto can force Celebrini to pass on entries and deny his preferred shooting lane. If the Sharks spend extended shifts defending, even his heavy workload can finish with too few clean releases.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |