By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 4 active games (Oct 13 to Oct 19), Darren Raddysh's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for SJ @ TOR is 2.8 (-114).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR @ UTA | 2.5 (+134) | — | 3 | Over | |
| BUF @ TOR | 2.5 (+110) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| NYI @ TOR | 2.5 (-104) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| SJ @ TOR | 2.5 (+105) | 0.0 | 5 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (0.0).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 · @ VEG | 2.5 | — | 1 | -1.5 |
| Oct 10 · @ COL | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0 | -2.5 |
| Oct 13 · @ UTA | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 15 · vs BUF | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 17 · vs NYI | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 19 · vs SJ | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
Raddysh's substantial ice time and first-unit power-play role preserve repeated opportunities to shoot from the point.
18 SOG · 8 GP · 23:51 TOI — Raddysh averages 23:51 and has 18 shots in eight games. A 24-minute expectation gives him sustained access to offensive-zone possessions rather than requiring a short burst of unusually aggressive shooting.
212 PRIOR SOG · 73 GP · 4:02 PP — The prior season's 212 shots in 73 games show that point shooting is an established part of his game. Toronto's PP1 assignment and his current 4:02 average power-play time can create cleaner shooting lanes than ordinary defensive shifts.
San Jose can pressure the point and force Raddysh to move the puck laterally instead of shooting. Repeated blocks or missed point attempts would consume opportunities without adding official shots.
Settlement Rule: CASHES DARREN RADDYSH FULL GAME SHOTS ON GOAL OVER 2.5 WITH AT LEAST 3 OFFICIAL SOG; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Toronto Maple Leafs's 5 primary contributors.
| Toronto Maple Leafs Contributor | Oct 28 @ SEA | Oct 31 @ VAN | Nov 3 vs UTA | Nov 7 vs MON | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews TOR · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Darren Raddysh TOR · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| William Nylander TOR · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jack Roslovic TOR · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Easton Cowan TOR · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Darren Raddysh prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | SJ @ TOR | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+105) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 5 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Raddysh's substantial ice time and first-unit power-play role preserve repeated opportunities to shoot from the point.
Counter-Case: San Jose can pressure the point and force Raddysh to move the puck laterally instead of shooting. Repeated blocks or missed point attempts would consume opportunities without adding official shots.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |