01 · Fundamental Driver
Shot baseline
147 SOG / 56 GP · 2.63 PER GAME — Malkin's 147 shots in 56 games amount to 2.63 per appearance. His projected 2.60 shots therefore sits close to demonstrated volume rather than requiring a major usage jump.
Posted Line Trajectory: Flat (0.0 over 2 games)Settled / Live Release · Full Dossier Unlocked
Evgeni Malkin Shots on Goal Prop (Pittsburgh Penguins @ Columbus Blue Jackets, ): Fair Line 2.6 (+108) vs 1.5 Market
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
FanDuel: Over 1.5 (+148)Modeled Edge: +19.4% EV · Fair Value 2.6 (+108)
- Pick & Release Line
- OVER 1.5 (+148)
- FanDuel
- Modeled Fair Line
- 2.6
- 1.1 Pt Delta
- Modeled Fair Price
- +108
- +19.4% EV
- Posted Line Drift
- 1.5 → 1.5 (0.0)
- Last 2 Active Games
- Matchup (CT)
- PIT @ CBJ
- NHL Props Lane CLV
- 50 / 10 / 21
- Beat / Tied / Lost
Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 2 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (2.6 / +108)
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 2 active games (Oct 7 to Oct 9), Evgeni Malkin's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 1.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for PIT @ CBJ is 2.6 (+108).
2-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Evgeni Malkin)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT @ WAS | 1.5 (-146) | — | 1 | Under | |
| PIT @ CBJ | 1.5 (+148) | 0.0 | 3 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Balanced Pricing5-Game Window
Evgeni Malkin Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.7).
Unpriced Book Step-Lag+0.7Max Single-Game Book Step: -1.0
- Window Open Line
- 1.5
- Current Posted Line
- 1.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- 0.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 2.2
- Actual Output Delta
- +0.7
- Modeled Fair Value
- 2.6 (+108)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 · @ PHI | 1.5 | — | 2 | +0.5 |
| Oct 3 · vs MON | — | — | 1 | — |
| Oct 5 · vs WPG | 2.5 | +1.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Oct 7 · @ WAS | 1.5 | -1.0 | 1 | -0.5 |
| Oct 9 · @ CBJ | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +1.5 |
WagerBird Write-Up · Evgeni Malkin Shots on Goal (Over 1.5)
Full Dossier UnlockedWrite-Up Thesis
Malkin's established shot volume places three recorded shots within reach against Columbus.
02 · Fundamental Driver
Opponent shot environment
28.8 CBJ SHOTS ALLOWED / GAME · 16–19 PROJECTED MIN — Columbus allowed approximately 28.8 shots per game last season, and Malkin is projected for 16–19 minutes. Sustained offensive-zone time would let his line generate the additional recorded attempt needed.
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
Malkin can create chances for Chinakhov without taking the shots himself. Attempts blocked by Columbus defenders or sent wide will not count toward his three-shot requirement.
Settlement Rule: CASHES EVGENI MALKIN OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST THREE RECORDED SHOTS. · NO PUSH ON THE HALF
WagerBird Nucleus Drift · Team Prop Signal
PIT @ CBJ · Pittsburgh Penguins Shots on Goal Nucleus Drift ()
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Pittsburgh Penguins's 5 primary contributors.
PIT Nucleus Drift5 of 5 Core Props Held FlatBalanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
| Pittsburgh Penguins Contributor | Oct 31 @ MON | Nov 3 vs VEG | Nov 5 vs BOS | Nov 7 @ LA | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson PIT · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Sidney Crosby PIT · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Rickard Rakell PIT · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Egor Chinakhov PIT · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Bryan Rust PIT · Shots on Goal | — | — | — | — | 0.0 | — | Flat → |
Pittsburgh Penguins (PIT)5 of 5 Core Props Held Flat
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Columbus Blue Jackets (CBJ)5 of 5 Core Props Held Flat
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team dossiers.
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up
Evgeni Malkin Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 1 Lost)
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Evgeni Malkin prop write-up.
Evgeni Malkin CLV Counts
0 Beat · 0 Tied · 1 Lost
1 Settled CLV Receipt| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | PIT @ CBJ | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+148) · FanDuel | 1.5 | 3 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Evgeni Malkin Prop Write-Ups
Oct 9 CT · PIT @ CBJ · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →
Malkin's established shot volume places three recorded shots within reach against Columbus.
Counter-Case: Malkin can create chances for Chinakhov without taking the shots himself. Attempts blocked by Columbus defenders or sent wide will not count toward his three-shot requirement.
NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |