By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Cutter Gauthier's shots on goal line at 3.5 for ANA @ CGY (Oct 10). WagerBird's modeled fair line for ANA @ CGY is 4.2 (-147).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA @ CGY | 3.5 (-125) | — | 0 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (-0.1).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 · @ VEG | 3.5 | — | 5 | +1.5 |
| Oct 4 · vs FLA | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Oct 7 · vs EDM | 3.5 | 0.0 | 7 | +3.5 |
| Oct 9 · @ WPG | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Oct 10 · @ CGY | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0 | -3.5 |
Gauthier's established shot volume and top-unit workload give him several paths to a fourth shot.
286 SHOTS / 76 GAMES · 16 SHOTS / 3 GAMES — Gauthier's 286 shots in 76 games last season establish a substantial individual shooting role. His 16 shots through three games this season show that he is still taking attempts himself rather than relying solely on teammates for offense.
20:57 ICE TIME · 7 SHOTS VS EDMONTON — He has averaged 20:57 of ice time and put seven shots on goal against Edmonton. Playing alongside Carlsson and on Anaheim's top power-play unit gives his line additional chances to establish offensive-zone possession.
The Winnipeg-to-Calgary trip could reduce Gauthier's attacking shifts. Calgary can block his attempts or force him to pass before he reaches four shots on goal.
Settlement Rule: CASHES CUTTER GAUTHIER OVER 3.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST FOUR; NO PUSH ON THE HALF-SHOT LINE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Anaheim Ducks's 5 primary contributors.
| Anaheim Ducks Contributor | Nov 1 vs OTT | Nov 3 @ VAN | Nov 5 @ EDM | Nov 6 @ CGY | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter Gauthier ANA · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Beckett Sennecke ANA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Leo Carlsson ANA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jackson LaCombe ANA · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Mikael Granlund ANA · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Cutter Gauthier prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | ANA @ VAN | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (-140) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 6 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 10 | ANA @ CGY | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (-132) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 0 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Gauthier's established shooting volume and first-unit power-play role give him a route to four shots against Vancouver's permissive defense.
Counter-Case: Granlund and Sennecke can finish possessions before Gauthier gets his attempt, especially when the line generates quick chances instead of sustained pressure. A penalty-light game would remove extra shooting sequences, and an early Anaheim lead could shift later possessions toward protecting the puck.
Gauthier's established shot volume and top-unit workload give him several paths to a fourth shot.
Counter-Case: The Winnipeg-to-Calgary trip could reduce Gauthier's attacking shifts. Calgary can block his attempts or force him to pass before he reaches four shots on goal.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |