By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Beckett Sennecke's shots on goal line at 2.5 for ANA @ CGY (Oct 10). WagerBird's modeled fair line for ANA @ CGY is 3.1 (-143).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA @ CGY | 2.5 (-128) | — | 2 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.1).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 · @ VEG | 2.5 | — | 1 | -1.5 |
| Oct 4 · vs FLA | — | — | 3 | — |
| Oct 7 · vs EDM | 2.5 | 0.0 | 7 | +4.5 |
| Oct 9 · @ WPG | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0 | -2.5 |
| Oct 10 · @ CGY | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
Sennecke's increased ice time and recent willingness to shoot make three shots attainable.
197 SHOTS / 82 GAMES · 11 SHOTS / 3 GAMES — Sennecke took 197 shots in 82 games last season and 11 in his first three this season. That early increase supports a greater share of Anaheim's attempts, although it rests on a short stretch.
21:35 ICE TIME · 7 SHOTS VS EDMONTON — His 21:35 average ice time creates more opportunities to turn possessions into shots. The seven-shot Edmonton game shows the upside available when his projected line with Granlund sustains pressure.
The seven-shot Edmonton performance may be an outlier rather than his usual assignment. Anaheim could manage his shifts on the second night of a road back-to-back, leaving him one shot short.
Settlement Rule: CASHES BECKETT SENNECKE OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST THREE; NO PUSH ON THE HALF-SHOT LINE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Anaheim Ducks's 5 primary contributors.
| Anaheim Ducks Contributor | Nov 1 vs OTT | Nov 3 @ VAN | Nov 5 @ EDM | Nov 6 @ CGY | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter Gauthier ANA · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Beckett Sennecke ANA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Leo Carlsson ANA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jackson LaCombe ANA · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Mikael Granlund ANA · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Beckett Sennecke prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | ANA @ CGY | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-130) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Sennecke's increased ice time and recent willingness to shoot make three shots attainable.
Counter-Case: The seven-shot Edmonton performance may be an outlier rather than his usual assignment. Anaheim could manage his shifts on the second night of a road back-to-back, leaving him one shot short.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |