01 · Fundamental Driver
Established shooting load
53 SOG · 13 GP · 4.08/G — Gauthier has generated 53 shots in 13 games, averaging 4.08 per appearance. That workload gives him a route to four shots without requiring an elevated finishing percentage.
Posted Line Trajectory: Flat (0.0 over 6 games)Settled / Live Release · Full Dossier Unlocked
Cutter Gauthier Shots on Goal Prop (Anaheim Ducks @ Vancouver Canucks, ): Fair Line 4.6 (-213) vs 3.5 Market
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Fanatics: Over 3.5 (-145)Modeled Edge: +16.7% EV · Fair Value 4.6 (-213)
- Pick & Release Line
- OVER 3.5 (-145)
- DraftKings
- Modeled Fair Line
- 4.6
- 1.1 Pt Delta
- Modeled Fair Price
- -213
- +16.7% EV
- Posted Line Drift
- 3.5 → 3.5 (0.0)
- Last 6 Active Games
- Matchup (CT)
- ANA @ VAN
- NHL Props Lane CLV
- 50 / 10 / 21
- Beat / Tied / Lost
Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (4.6 / -213)
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 22 to Nov 3), Cutter Gauthier's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 3.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for ANA @ VAN is 4.6 (-213).
6-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Cutter Gauthier)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA @ NJ | 3.5 (+110) | — | 2 | Under | |
| ANA @ PHI | 3.5 (-105) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| VAN @ ANA | 3.5 (-125) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| BUF @ ANA | 3.5 (-110) | 0.0 | 10 | Over | |
| OTT @ ANA | 3.5 (-118) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| ANA @ VAN | 3.5 (-145) | 0.0 | 6 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Lagging Production6-Game Window
Cutter Gauthier Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Actual output +1.7 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.7 Unpriced Book Lag).
Unpriced Book Step-Lag+1.7Max Single-Game Book Step: 0.0
- Window Open Line
- 3.5
- Current Posted Line
- 3.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- 0.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 5.2
- Actual Output Delta
- +1.7
- Modeled Fair Value
- 4.6 (-213)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 · @ NJ | 3.5 | — | 2 | -1.5 |
| Oct 24 · @ PHI | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Oct 27 · vs VAN | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Oct 29 · vs BUF | 3.5 | 0.0 | 10 | +6.5 |
| Nov 1 · vs OTT | 3.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +1.5 |
| Nov 3 · @ VAN | 3.5 | 0.0 | 6 | +2.5 |
WagerBird Write-Up · Cutter Gauthier Shots on Goal (Over 3.5)
Full Dossier UnlockedWrite-Up Thesis
Gauthier's established shooting volume and first-unit power-play role give him a route to four shots against Vancouver's permissive defense.
02 · Fundamental Driver
Two sources of offensive shifts
18:00 ATOI · PP1 — Gauthier averages 18:00 of ice time and skates with Granlund and Sennecke at even strength. His place on the first power-play unit preserves another source of shooting opportunities when penalties interrupt the regular rotation.
03 · Fundamental Driver
Room for repeat attempts
31.94 SA/G · 16 GP — Vancouver has allowed 511 shots in 16 games, or 31.94 per game. That environment can provide repeat opportunities for an established shooter even when some attempts are blocked or miss the net.
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
Granlund and Sennecke can finish possessions before Gauthier gets his attempt, especially when the line generates quick chances instead of sustained pressure. A penalty-light game would remove extra shooting sequences, and an early Anaheim lead could shift later possessions toward protecting the puck.
Settlement Rule: CASHES CUTTER GAUTHIER OVER 3.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH FOUR OR MORE OFFICIAL SHOTS · PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF.
WagerBird Nucleus Drift · Team Prop Signal
ANA @ VAN · Anaheim Ducks Shots on Goal Nucleus Drift ()
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Anaheim Ducks's 5 primary contributors.
ANA Nucleus Drift5 of 5 Core Props Held FlatBalanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
| Anaheim Ducks Contributor | Nov 1 vs OTT | Nov 3 @ VAN | Nov 5 @ EDM | Nov 6 @ CGY | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter Gauthier ANA · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Beckett Sennecke ANA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Leo Carlsson ANA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jackson LaCombe ANA · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Mikael Granlund ANA · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Anaheim Ducks (ANA)5 of 5 Core Props Held Flat
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Vancouver Canucks (VAN)5 of 5 Core Props Held Flat
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team dossiers.
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault2 Tracked Write-Ups
Cutter Gauthier Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (1 Beat, 0 Tied, 1 Lost)
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Cutter Gauthier prop write-ups.
Cutter Gauthier CLV Counts
1 Beat · 0 Tied · 1 Lost
2 Settled CLV Receipts| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | ANA @ VAN | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (-140) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 6 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 10 | ANA @ CGY | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (-132) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 0 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Cutter Gauthier Prop Write-Ups
Nov 3 CT · ANA @ VAN · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →
Gauthier's established shooting volume and first-unit power-play role give him a route to four shots against Vancouver's permissive defense.
Counter-Case: Granlund and Sennecke can finish possessions before Gauthier gets his attempt, especially when the line generates quick chances instead of sustained pressure. A penalty-light game would remove extra shooting sequences, and an early Anaheim lead could shift later possessions toward protecting the puck.
Oct 10 CT · ANA @ CGY · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →
Gauthier's established shot volume and top-unit workload give him several paths to a fourth shot.
Counter-Case: The Winnipeg-to-Calgary trip could reduce Gauthier's attacking shifts. Calgary can block his attempts or force him to pass before he reaches four shots on goal.
NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |