By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 25 to Nov 3), Cole Perfetti's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for WPG @ MON is 2.8 (-111).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MON @ WPG | 2.5 (+120) | — | 4 | Over | |
| FLA @ WPG | 2.5 (+125) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| WPG @ TB | 2.5 (+130) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| WPG @ FLA | 2.5 (+145) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| WPG @ CARReduced-Role Line | 1.5 | -1.0 | 3 | Over | |
| WPG @ MON | 2.5 (+128) | +1.0 | 6 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.8).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 · @ DAL | 2.5 | — | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 25 · vs MON | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Oct 27 · vs FLA | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 29 · @ TB | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 30 · @ FLA | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Nov 3 · @ MON | 2.5 | 0.0 | 6 | +3.5 |
Perfetti's expanded ice time and repeatable shot frequency support 3 shots without requiring Winnipeg to score heavily.
43 SOG · 15 GP · 18:32 TOI — Perfetti has 43 shots in 15 games while averaging 18:32, up from 15:37 last season. Playing alongside Mark Scheifele and on the first power-play unit gives him both even-strength entries and additional offensive-zone touches.
10 OF 15 · 3+ SOG — Perfetti has reached 3 shots in 10 of 15 games, including 4 of his last 5. That frequency provides a route to cashing through personal shooting volume even when Winnipeg's scoring stays limited.
Montreal can force Winnipeg to defend for long stretches and leave the scoring line with fewer settled possessions. If the power play routes its shots through the other flank, Perfetti can finish with two shots on goal despite regular minutes.
Settlement Rule: CASHES COLE PERFETTI OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH 3 OR MORE OFFICIAL SHOTS ON GOAL · PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Winnipeg Jets's 5 primary contributors.
| Winnipeg Jets Contributor | Oct 30 @ FLA | Nov 1 @ CAR | Nov 3 @ MON | Nov 5 vs VAN | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor WPG · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Neal Pionk WPG · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Cole Perfetti WPG · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Mark Scheifele WPG · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Gabriel Vilardi WPG · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
2 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Cole Perfetti prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | WPG @ MON | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+139) · Caesars | 2.5 | 6 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 22 | WPG @ DAL | Shots on Goal | Over 1.5 (-164) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Perfetti's expanded ice time and repeatable shot frequency support 3 shots without requiring Winnipeg to score heavily.
Counter-Case: Montreal can force Winnipeg to defend for long stretches and leave the scoring line with fewer settled possessions. If the power play routes its shots through the other flank, Perfetti can finish with two shots on goal despite regular minutes.
Perfetti's increased playing time and access to the primary scoring group support the two shots needed to cash.
Counter-Case: Perfetti can become the distributor while Connor and Scheifele take the final releases. If Dallas forces that line to spend extended shifts defending, his ice time can remain intact without producing the second shot.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |