Posted Line Trajectory: Flat (0.0 over 6 games)Free Dossier Release

Cale Makar Shots on Goal Prop (Detroit Red Wings @ Colorado Avalanche, ): Fair Line 2.7 (-107) vs 2.5 Market

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)

FanDuel: Over 2.5 (-114)Modeled Edge: +10.4% EV · Fair Value 2.7 (-107)
Pick & Release Line
OVER 2.5 (-110)
Caesars
Modeled Fair Line
2.7
0.2 Pt Delta
Modeled Fair Price
-107
+10.4% EV
Posted Line Drift
2.5 → 2.5 (0.0)
Last 6 Active Games
Matchup (CT)
DET @ COL
NHL Props Lane CLV
50 / 10 / 21
Beat / Tied / Lost

Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)

Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.

Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (2.7 / -107)
Across the last 6 active games (Oct 28 to Nov 7), Cale Makar's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for DET @ COL is 2.7 (-107).4.03.53.02.52.01.5WB FAIR LINE: 2.72.52.52.52.52.52.5Oct 28NJ @ COLOct 31CGY @ COLNov 2COL @ CHINov 3COL @ CBJNov 5NAS @ COLNov 7DET @ COL

Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 28 to Nov 7), Cale Makar's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for DET @ COL is 2.7 (-107).

6-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Cale Makar)

America/Chicago (CT)
Date (CT)MatchupPosted LineMoveActualResult
NJ @ COL2.5 (+110)—6Over
CGY @ COL2.5 (-135)0.03Over
COL @ CHI2.5 (-120)0.02Under
COL @ CBJ2.5 (+105)0.05Over
NAS @ COL2.5 (-128)0.00Under
DET @ COL2.5 (-110)0.0—Fair 2.7

Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.

Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
FanDuel: Over 2.5 (-114)DraftKings: Over 2.5 (-115)BetMGM: Over 2.5 (-118)Caesars: Over 2.5 (-110)Fanatics: Over 2.5 (-120)Trade on Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Balanced Pricing6-Game Window

Cale Makar Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)

Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.7).

Unpriced Book Step-Lag+0.7Max Single-Game Book Step: 0.0
Window Open Line
2.5
Current Posted Line
2.5
Book Cumulative Step
0.0
Actual Window Avg
3.2
Actual Output Delta
+0.7
Modeled Fair Value
2.7 (-107)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
Cale Makar Sticky Book Anchoring Meter: 6-game Posted Shots on Goal Line vs Actual Box-Score Output806Oct 28vs NJ3Oct 31vs CGY2Nov 2@ CHI5Nov 3@ CBJ0Nov 5vs NASNov 7vs DET
Game (CT)Posted LineBook StepActualBox Surplus
Oct 28 · vs NJ2.5—6+3.5
Oct 31 · vs CGY2.50.03+0.5
Nov 2 · @ CHI2.50.02-0.5
Nov 3 · @ CBJ2.50.05+2.5
Nov 5 · vs NAS2.50.00-2.5
Nov 7 · vs DET2.50.0——

WagerBird Write-Up · Cale Makar Shots on Goal (Over 2.5)

Free Dossier Release
Write-Up Thesis

Makar's recent shooting involvement and first-unit power-play role provide enough opportunities to reach three shots despite Detroit's suppression.

01 · Fundamental Driver

Shooting involvement

44 SOG · 16 GAMES · 16 SOG IN LAST 5 — Makar has recorded 44 shots in 16 games and 16 across his latest five appearances. That recent involvement gives him a route to the threshold through repeated offensive possessions rather than requiring an unusually efficient scoring night.

02 · Fundamental Driver

Primary special-teams minutes

24.5 MIN PROJECTED · 4.42 RECENT PP MIN · PP1 — Makar's latest five games averaged 4.42 power-play minutes, and he runs the first unit with Colorado's leading attacking group. A projected 24.5 minutes gives him opportunities at even strength as well as on the advantage, reducing reliance on a single brief shooting sequence.

Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors

Thesis Invalidation Risks

Detroit can crowd the high slot, block point attempts and force lateral passes that never become shots on goal. If Colorado's forwards handle most of the finishing, heavy power-play time can still leave Makar short.

Settlement Rule: CASHES CALE MAKAR OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST THREE OFFICIAL SHOTS ON GOAL; NO PUSH AT 2.5.

WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift · Balanced AllocationDET @ COL · Shots on Goal

DET @ COL · Colorado Avalanche WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) ()

Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Colorado Avalanche's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.

COL Rotation Mode: Balanced Allocation6 of 6 Core-6 Scorers Holding SteadyBalanced Core-6 Scoring Allocation: Implied Team Total Pressure Neutral

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

+23.3 Shots Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 26.8 vs. 3.5 Posted Team Total)

6 Licensed Books Quoting Team Total
Colorado Avalanche Core-6 Prop Sum 14.0 vs Implied Team Total 26.8 vs Posted Team Total 3.5Core-6 Prop Sum14.0Implied Team Total26.8Posted Team Total3.5
Core-6 SumCore-6 ShareImplied TotalPosted TotalReconciliation Gap
14.052.2%26.83.5 (-122)+23.3
Compare COL Team Total Partner Quotes:
FanDuel 3.5 (O -134)DraftKings 3.5 (O -140)BetMGM 3.5 (O -140)Caesars 3.5 (O -143)Kalshi (Code WBIRD1)
Core-6 PlayerTonight LineTeam Scoring Share %Tonight's Implied Prop Share %6-Game Line Drift6G TrendOutcome Tag
#1
Nathan MacKinnon
COL · Prev 3.5 (0.0)
3.58.4%100.0%(+91.6% vs Hist)0.0Nathan MacKinnon 6-game posted line trend from 3.5 to 3.5Steady Share
#2
Cale Makar
COL · Prev 2.5 (0.0)
2.510.2%71.4%(+61.2% vs Hist)0.0Cale Makar 6-game posted line trend from 2.5 to 2.5Steady Share
#3
Martin Necas
COL · Prev 2.5 (0.0)
2.57.2%71.4%(+64.2% vs Hist)0.0Martin Necas 6-game posted line trend from 2.5 to 2.5Steady Share
#4
Nazem Kadri
COL · Prev 2.5 (0.0)
2.59.0%71.4%(+62.4% vs Hist)0.0Nazem Kadri 6-game posted line trend from 2.5 to 2.5Steady Share
#5
Devon Toews
COL · Prev 1.5 (0.0)
1.510.2%42.9%(+32.7% vs Hist)0.0Devon Toews 6-game posted line trend from 1.5 to 1.5Steady Share
#6
Sam Malinski
COL · Prev 1.5 (0.0)
1.57.2%42.9%(+35.7% vs Hist)0.0Sam Malinski 6-game posted line trend from 1.5 to 1.5Steady Share
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team pages.
Colorado Avalanche team page →
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up

Cale Makar Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)

1 active Cale Makar prop write-up tracked awaiting closing line settlement.

Cale Makar CLV Counts
0 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost
0 Settled CLV Receipts
Date (CT)MatchupMarketRelease QuoteClosing LineActualCLV GradeWrite-Up
Nov 7DET @ COLShots on GoalOver 2.5 (+114) · FanDuel2.5——Read Write-Up →

NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)

WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)
Prop Lane WindowBeat CloseTied CloseLost Close
Season to date (from Sep 23 CT)501021
Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT)48921