Posted Line Trajectory: Flat (0.0 over 5 games)Settled / Live Release · Full Dossier Unlocked

Anton Lundell Shots on Goal Prop (Florida Panthers @ Ottawa Senators, Oct 21, 6:30 PM CT): Fair Line 2.1 (-165) vs 1.5 Market

Name: Anton Lundell Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory & FLA @ OTT Nucleus Drift
Creator: WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk
Published: 2026-10-21T20:46:53+00:00

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released Wed, Oct 21, 3:46 PM CT · Last updated (CT) Sat, Nov 7, 10:57 AM CT

Fanatics: Over 1.5 (-130)Modeled Edge: +10.2% EV · Fair Value 2.1 (-165)

Pick & Release Line: OVER 1.5 (-130); FanDuel
Modeled Fair Line: 2.1; 0.6 Pt Delta
Modeled Fair Price: -165; +10.2% EV
Posted Line Drift: 1.5 → 1.5 (0.0); Last 5 Active Games
Matchup (CT): FLA @ OTT; Oct 21, 6:30 PM CT
NHL Props Lane CLV: 50 / 10 / 21; Beat / Tied / Lost

Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 5 Active Games)

Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.

Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (2.1 / -165)

Trajectory Readout: Across the last 5 active games (Oct 12 to Oct 21), Anton Lundell's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 1.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for FLA @ OTT is 2.1 (-165).

5-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Anton Lundell)

America/Chicago (CT)

Date (CT)	Matchup	Posted Line	Move	Actual	Result
Oct 12	FLA @ BUF	1.5 (-150)	—	3	Over
Oct 13	FLA @ CBJ	1.5 (-146)	0.0	1	Under
Oct 15	VAN @ FLA	1.5	0.0	4	Over
Oct 17	SEA @ FLA	1.5 (-150)	0.0	1	Under
Oct 21	FLA @ OTT	1.5 (-130)	0.0	1	Under

Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.

Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).

Fanatics: Over 1.5 (-130)DraftKings: Over 1.5 (-130)FanDuel: Over 1.5 (-130)BetMGM: Over 1.5 (-130)Trade on Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Lagging Production6-Game Window

Anton Lundell Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)

Actual output +1.2 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.2 Unpriced Book Lag).

Unpriced Book Step-Lag+1.2Max Single-Game Book Step: 0.0

Window Open Line: 1.5
Current Posted Line: 1.5
Book Cumulative Step: 0.0
Actual Window Avg: 2.7
Actual Output Delta: +1.2
Modeled Fair Value: 2.1 (-165)

Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output

Book Line Actual Stat

Game (CT)	Posted Line	Book Step	Actual	Box Surplus
Oct 10 · vs MIN	1.5	—	6	+4.5
Oct 12 · @ BUF	1.5	0.0	3	+1.5
Oct 13 · @ CBJ	1.5	0.0	1	-0.5
Oct 15 · vs VAN	1.5	0.0	4	+2.5
Oct 17 · vs SEA	1.5	0.0	1	-0.5
Oct 21 · @ OTT	1.5	0.0	1	-0.5

WagerBird Write-Up · Anton Lundell Shots on Goal (Over 1.5)

Full Dossier Unlocked

Write-Up Thesis

Lundell's established shooting rate and regular workload support reaching two shots even from a third-line assignment.

01 · Fundamental Driver

Volume beyond the top line

25 SOG · 9 GP · 17:57 ATOI — Lundell has generated 25 shots through nine games while averaging 17:57. His third-line assignment still provides a regular workload, so the selection does not require promotion beside the highest-profile forwards.

02 · Fundamental Driver

A larger shooting baseline

137 SOG · 64 PRIOR-SEASON GP · PP2 — Lundell recorded 137 shots in 64 games last season, giving the current production a larger comparison sample. His second-unit power-play role supplies another opportunity to reach the net when special teams interrupt even-strength play.

Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors

Thesis Invalidation Risks

Lundell could spend too many shifts defending and changing before an attacking possession develops. A power-play game dominated by the first unit would also leave his secondary group with little useful shooting time.

Settlement Rule: CASHES ANTON LUNDELL FULL GAME SHOTS ON GOAL OVER 1.5 WITH AT LEAST TWO SHOTS ON GOAL; NO PUSH IS POSSIBLE.

WagerBird Nucleus Drift · Team Prop Signal

FLA @ OTT · Florida Panthers Shots on Goal Nucleus Drift (Oct 21, 6:30 PM CT)

Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Florida Panthers's 5 primary contributors.

FLA Nucleus Drift5 of 5 Core Props Held FlatBalanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral

Florida Panthers Contributor	Oct 30 vs WPG	Nov 2 vs DET	Nov 4 vs CHI	Nov 7 @ WAS	Trend Badge
Brady Tkachuk FLA · Shots on Goal	3.5	2.5	3.5	3.5	Flat →
Sam Reinhart FLA · Shots on Goal	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	Flat →
Carter Verhaeghe FLA · Shots on Goal	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	Flat →
Matthew Tkachuk FLA · Shots on Goal	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	Flat →
Sam Bennett FLA · Shots on Goal	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	Flat →

Florida Panthers (FLA)5 of 5 Core Props Held Flat

Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral

Ottawa Senators (OTT)1 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Down

Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral

Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team dossiers.

Florida Panthers team page →

Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up

Anton Lundell Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (1 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)

1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Anton Lundell prop write-up.

Anton Lundell CLV Counts

1 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost

1 Settled CLV Receipt

Date (CT)	Matchup	Market	Release Quote	Closing Line	Actual	CLV Grade	Write-Up
Oct 21	FLA @ OTT	Shots on Goal	Over 1.5 (-130) · Fanatics	1.5	1	Beat	Read Write-Up →

Archived Settled Anton Lundell Prop Write-Ups

Oct 21 CT · FLA @ OTT · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →

Lundell's established shooting rate and regular workload support reaching two shots even from a third-line assignment.

Counter-Case: Lundell could spend too many shifts defending and changing before an attacking possession develops. A power-play game dominated by the first unit would also leave his secondary group with little useful shooting time.

NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)

WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)

Prop Lane Window	Beat Close	Tied Close	Lost Close
Season to date (from Sep 23 CT)	50	10	21
Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT)	48	9	21