Why is the GB @ NE Home Team Total moving?
Prices as of .
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
- WagerBird Signal Status
- - No Pick (Market Movement)
- Current Consensus across 15 books
- 23.5 (9 consensus books · 15 tracked)
- Market Move
- 24.5 to 23.5 (1.0 pt toward Under)
- Lane CLV record
- NFL team totals: 8 Beat / 3 Tied / 13 Lost (24 measured)
Why is the GB @ NE Home Team Total moving?
- Best available partner price toward Under 24.5: BetMGM (-125).
Vig-free consensus and best partner price
GB @ NE Home Team Total Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | Over | Under | Updated (CT) | Execution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 24.5+105 | 24.5-125 | BetMGM | |
| Caesars | 24.5+108 | 24.5-143 | Caesars | |
| DraftKings | 23.5-125 | 23.5+100 | DraftKings | |
| FanDuel | 23.5-113 | 23.5-113 | FanDuel | |
| Fanatics | 24.5+100 | 24.5-135 | Fanatics |
Full market: 15 sportsbooks, consensus 23.5. Links shown for licensed books we work with.
Market Movement Analysis: GB @ NE Home Team Total
The Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots New England Patriots team total opened at 24.5 on WagerBird's per-book price tape (first recorded Sun, Nov 1, 7:15 PM CT) and currently sits at 23.5 across 17 tracked sportsbooks, representing a net move of 1.0 pt, with net market movement toward Under. Scheduled kickoff is Sun, Nov 8, 3:25 PM CT, and all live sportsbook quotes on this page are timestamped as of Sat, Nov 7, 6:40 PM CT.
As of Sat, Nov 7, 5:30 PM CT, WagerBird Modeled Fair Value and vig-free consensus price Under 24.5 at 57.0% vig-free probability, reflecting a +3.5% Fair Value Edge relative to current partner sportsbook quotes, with the best available partner price currently at BetMGM (-125).
Across the 15 sportsbooks currently quoting the Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots New England Patriots team total, the top-to-bottom market spread is 1.0 pt, creating measurable price dispersion for bettors comparing lines across licensed operators.
Stripping out sportsbook overround (vig), the 9-book consensus prices Over at 23.5 -104 (50.9% vig-free probability) and Under at 23.5 +104 (49.1% vig-free probability).
Best execution prices among licensed partner sportsbooks right now: Over 23.5 -113 at FanDuel; Under 24.5 -125 at BetMGM.
In the NFL team totals betting lane, WagerBird's released plays have beaten the release book's closing line 8 times, tied 3, and lost 13 season to date (24 graded releases through 2026-11-06). Every historical settled release can be verified in the downloadable CSV audit log below.
NFL Team Totals Closing-Line Value Record (8 Beat, 3 Tied, 13 Lost)
Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)| Window | Beat | Tied | Lost | Measured | Beat % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date | 8 | 3 | 13 | 24 | 38.1% |
| Last 30 days | 4 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 40.0% |
WagerBird measures closing-line value (CLV) by comparing each pick's release line and price against the pre-kickoff closing number at the exact sportsbook where the pick was released (settled picks through 2026-11-06).
Cite or Embed This Vig-Free Market Split (Media & Beat Writers)
Embed live vig-free odds, implied probability split, and fair value telemetry for Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (Home Team Total) attributed to WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475):
<iframe src="https://wagerbird.com/markets/embed/nfl/green-bay-packers-at-new-england-patriots-home-team-total-2026-11-08-34264" title="Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots Home Team Total Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability | WagerBird" width="100%" height="340" style="border:0;border-radius:6px;overflow:hidden;" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px;margin-top:4px;">Source: <a href="https://wagerbird.com/markets/nfl/green-bay-packers-at-new-england-patriots-home-team-total-2026-11-08-34264">GB @ NE Home Team Total Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability</a> by WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475).</p>