Minnesota's early offensive drag and disruptive defense can keep enough opening possessions from becoming touchdowns to hold the first-half total down.
Fundamental Case (3 Drivers)
Minnesota scored six first-half points against Indianapolis and seven against Detroit. Those starts show how its offense can consume possessions without producing repeated touchdown drives. Against a pressure-capable front, another stalled series or field-goal finish would keep the combined opening score from accelerating.
Minnesota's October defensive snapshot paired negative EPA allowed with a low opponent success rate. That combination matters because Buffalo must string together successful plays rather than rely on its own scoring average to carry forward unchanged. Pressure can force an early throw or failed conversion, leaving a productive-looking possession without a touchdown.
Murray's reconstructed season line contains fifteen sacks across six starts, while the November pressure snapshot shows a substantial share of pressures becoming sacks. Lost yardage is especially costly before halftime because it can remove an entire scoring possession from a limited set of opportunities. Minnesota's replacement interior alignment must hold up long enough to avoid those drive-ending setbacks.
Red Team Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Allen can defeat aggressive pressure with quick throws and turn an isolated coverage mistake into a touchdown. Murray can escape the rush and find Jefferson against a Buffalo pass defense that has allowed efficient production. A turnover or long return can create scoring opportunities without requiring either offense to sustain a drive. If those short fields coincide with touchdown finishes instead of field goals, this half can get past the total quickly.