By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 21 to Oct 30), sportsbooks adjusted P.J. Washington's posted points line upward in 1 of 5 game-over-game steps from 12.5 to 13.5 (+1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for HOU @ DAL is 15.1 (-162).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL @ HOU | 12.5 (-115) | — | 10 | Under | |
| DAL @ IND | 12.5 (-110) | 0.0 | 20 | Over | |
| SAS @ DAL | 15.5 (+100) | +3.0 | 12 | Under | |
| DAL @ MIA | 14.5 (+103) | -1.0 | 20 | Over | |
| OKC @ DAL | 13.5 (-125) | -1.0 | 18 | Over | |
| HOU @ DAL | 13.5 (-105) | 0.0 | 3 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (+1.0) tracks actual window production (+1.3).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · @ HOU | 12.5 | — | 10 | -2.5 |
| Oct 23 · @ IND | 12.5 | 0.0 | 20 | +7.5 |
| Oct 24 · vs SAS | 15.5 | +3.0 | 12 | -3.5 |
| Oct 26 · @ MIA | 14.5 | -1.0 | 20 | +5.5 |
| Oct 28 · vs OKC | 13.5 | -1.0 | 18 | +4.5 |
| Oct 30 · vs HOU | 13.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -10.5 |
Washington's expanded workload supports enough scoring without requiring an increase in his offensive role.
14.2 PTS · 31.0 MIN — Washington averaged 14.2 points in 31.0 minutes last season. A longer assignment allows him to reach the scoring target through ordinary finishing and perimeter opportunities rather than a larger share of the offense.
35.0 MIN · 20 PTS LAST GAME — His opening workload is 35.0 minutes per game, and the latest outing produced 20 points on 15 attempts. Those opportunities support a scoring role alongside the primary creators rather than one dependent on replacing them.
Irving and Flagg can consume the scoring opportunities and leave Washington waiting for spot-up chances. If those jumpers miss, a modest team scoring night offers little room to recover.
Settlement Rule: CASHES P.J. WASHINGTON JR. OVER 13.5 POINTS; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Dallas Mavericks's 5 primary contributors.
| Dallas Mavericks Contributor | Oct 30 vs HOU | Nov 2 vs SAC | Nov 4 @ SAS | Nov 6 vs UTA | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg DAL · Points | 23.5 | 28.5 | 24.5 | 25.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Kyrie Irving DAL · Points | 18.5 | 20.5 | 19.5 | 22.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| P.J. Washington DAL · Points | 13.5 | 15.5 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Max Christie DAL · Points | 9.5 | 9.5 | — | 7.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Zaccharie Risacher DAL · Points | 8.5 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 6.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled P.J. Washington prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | HOU @ DAL | Points | Over 13.5 (+105) · Fanatics | 13.5 | 3 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Washington's expanded workload supports enough scoring without requiring an increase in his offensive role.
Counter-Case: Irving and Flagg can consume the scoring opportunities and leave Washington waiting for spot-up chances. If those jumpers miss, a modest team scoring night offers little room to recover.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |