By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Pascal Siakam's 3-pointers made line at 1.5 for IND @ NOP (Oct 21). WagerBird's modeled fair line for IND @ NOP is 1.7 (-103).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND @ NOP | 1.5 (+152) | — | 1 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Insufficient 6-game box-score history to measure book step-lag.
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · @ NOP | 1.5 | — | 1 | -0.5 |
Siakam can retain enough perimeter volume to make two threes even as his overall creation burden declines.
4.2 TO 4.7 3PA · 1.6 TO 1.7 3PM — Siakam averaged 4.2 and 4.7 three-point attempts across the last two seasons, producing 1.6 and 1.7 makes per game. That relatively stable perimeter workload is more relevant here than simply carrying forward last season's larger scoring responsibility.
34 MIN · 4.6 3PA · 37.0% — The expected 34-minute workload allows 4.6 outside attempts at 37.0% shooting without requiring another increase in ball dominance. Haliburton's return can shift some possessions from self-created scoring toward receiving the ball with the defense already moving.
A favorable interior matchup can keep Siakam occupied with post-ups and transition finishes rather than perimeter attempts. Even with enough outside looks, an ordinary cold shooting night can leave him with only one make.
Settlement Rule: CASHES PASCAL SIAKAM OVER 1.5 MADE THREES WITH AT LEAST TWO MAKES; NO PUSH IS POSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Indiana Pacers's 5 primary contributors.
| Indiana Pacers Contributor | Oct 30 @ MIA | Nov 1 vs BKN | Nov 4 @ MEM | Nov 7 vs DEN | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam IND · Points | 23.5 | 24.5 | 22.5 | 20.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Tyrese Haliburton IND · Points | — | — | — | — | 0.0 | — | Flat → |
| Ivica Zubac IND · Points | — | — | 11.5 | 9.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Andrew Nembhard IND · Points | 17.5 | 18.5 | 17.5 | 16.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. IND · Points | 11.5 | 11.5 | — | 9.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
0 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Pascal Siakam prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | IND @ NOP | 3-Pointers Made | Over 1.5 (+152) · FanDuel | 1.5 | 1 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
Siakam can retain enough perimeter volume to make two threes even as his overall creation burden declines.
Counter-Case: A favorable interior matchup can keep Siakam occupied with post-ups and transition finishes rather than perimeter attempts. Even with enough outside looks, an ordinary cold shooting night can leave him with only one make.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |