By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 2 active games (Oct 21 to Oct 23), Myles Turner's posted 3-pointers made line has held net flat at 1.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for CHI @ MIL is 2.4 (-213).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL @ WAS | 1.5 (-132) | — | 2 | Over | |
| CHI @ MIL | 1.5 (-138) | 0.0 | 2 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.5).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · @ WAS | 1.5 | — | 2 | +0.5 |
| Oct 23 · vs CHI | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | +0.5 |
Turner's established perimeter volume and projected starting-center minutes give him a repeatable path to multiple made threes.
5.4 3PA · 38.3% · 71 G — Turner attempted 5.4 threes per game and converted 38.3% across 71 games last season. His outside shooting is an established part of the offense rather than an occasional addition to an interior role.
30 PROJECTED MIN · 2.35 PROJECTED 3PM — The starting-center assignment supports a projected 30-minute shift and approximately 6.1 perimeter attempts. He played 32:15 and attempted five threes in the opener, giving the attempt forecast a practical route through his current rotation.
Aggressive closeouts can push Turner into drives or return passes instead of perimeter shots. Early fouls can also transfer center minutes to Ware before the expected attempts accumulate.
Settlement Rule: CASHES MYLES TURNER OVER 1.5 THREES WITH AT LEAST TWO MADE THREES; NO PUSH IS POSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Milwaukee Bucks's 5 primary contributors.
| Milwaukee Bucks Contributor | Oct 31 vs CLE | Nov 2 @ MIN | Nov 4 @ BOS | Nov 6 vs TOR | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro MIL · Points | 21.5 | 20.5 | 19.5 | 20.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Ryan Rollins MIL · Points | 14.5 | 13.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIL · Points | 15.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 14.5 | +2.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Myles Turner MIL · Points | 10.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Kyle Kuzma MIL · Points | 11.5 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ |
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Myles Turner prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | CHI @ MIL | 3-Pointers Made | Over 1.5 (-140) · Fanatics | 1.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Turner's established perimeter volume and projected starting-center minutes give him a repeatable path to multiple made threes.
Counter-Case: Aggressive closeouts can push Turner into drives or return passes instead of perimeter shots. Early fouls can also transfer center minutes to Ware before the expected attempts accumulate.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |