By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 3 active games (Oct 21 to Oct 25), Lauri Markkanen's posted 3-pointers made line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for LAL @ UTA is 2.8 (-117).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA @ MEM | 2.5 (+100) | — | 1 | Under | |
| NOP @ UTA | 2.5 (+110) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| LAL @ UTA | 2.5 (+123) | 0.0 | 5 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.8).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · @ MEM | 2.5 | — | 1 | -1.5 |
| Oct 23 · vs NOP | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Oct 25 · vs LAL | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
Markkanen's sustained three-point attempt volume gives him a viable path to three makes without a large overall scoring night.
16 3PA · 2 GAMES — Markkanen attempted seven threes in the opener and nine in his next game. A perimeter-heavy shot diet supplies repeated chances to reach three makes even when other players handle more of the creation.
7.7 3PA · 35.5% · 42 GAMES — Last season he averaged 7.7 three-point attempts and shot 35.5% across 42 games. That combination allows the wager to succeed through normal perimeter production rather than an exceptional shooting night.
Closeouts can force Markkanen inside the arc and reduce the attempts that matter for this wager. George and Jackson can absorb more possessions, while an ordinary cold stretch can leave an adequate attempt total with only two makes.
Settlement Rule: CASHES LAURI MARKKANEN OVER 2.5 MADE THREES WITH AT LEAST THREE MAKES; NO PUSH ON THE HALF-POINT.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Utah Jazz's 5 primary contributors.
| Utah Jazz Contributor | Oct 31 vs POR | Nov 2 @ SAS | Nov 4 @ NOP | Nov 6 @ DAL | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauri Markkanen UTA · Points | 21.5 | 19.5 | 21.5 | 20.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Keyonte George UTA · Points | 21.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 21.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. UTA · Points | — | — | — | — | 0.0 | — | Flat → |
| Darryn Peterson UTA · Points | 13.5 | 12.5 | 14.5 | 13.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Ace Bailey UTA · Points | 14.5 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Lauri Markkanen prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | LAL @ UTA | 3-Pointers Made | Over 2.5 (+120) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 5 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Markkanen's sustained three-point attempt volume gives him a viable path to three makes without a large overall scoring night.
Counter-Case: Closeouts can force Markkanen inside the arc and reduce the attempts that matter for this wager. George and Jackson can absorb more possessions, while an ordinary cold stretch can leave an adequate attempt total with only two makes.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |