By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 3 active games (Oct 20 to Oct 26), sportsbooks adjusted Jayson Tatum's posted 3-pointers made line upward in 1 of 2 game-over-game steps from 2.5 to 3.5 (+1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for CHI @ BOS is 2.9 (-203).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS @ DET | 2.5 (-162) | — | 0 | Under | |
| NYK @ BOS | 2.5 (-165) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| CHI @ BOS | 3.5 (+135) | +1.0 | 2 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Books adjusted +1.0 vs. -0.8 actual output delta (-1.8 Book Over-Adjustment).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · @ DET | 2.5 | — | 0 | -2.5 |
| Oct 23 · vs NYK | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 26 · vs CHI | 3.5 | +1.0 | 2 | -1.5 |
Tatum's attempt volume and ordinary shooting accuracy point toward a made-three total below the posted threshold.
2.9 3PM · 8.9 3PA LAST SEASON — Tatum averaged 2.9 made threes on 8.9 attempts in his limited prior-season sample. That combination shows how a substantial perimeter workload can still produce a modest made-shot total when accuracy remains ordinary.
1.5 3PM · 8.5 3PA · 17.6% — The opening two games contain 1.5 makes on 8.5 attempts at 17.6%, well below his prior 32.9% accuracy. A return toward that prior accuracy improves his shooting without requiring an unusually efficient perimeter night.
Tatum attempted ten threes in the latest completed game, so improved accuracy can defeat this position without a change in role. A close fourth quarter can keep the attempts coming instead of shortening his night.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JAYSON TATUM FULL GAME THREES UNDER 3.5 WITH THREE OR FEWER MADE THREES; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Boston Celtics's 5 primary contributors.
| Boston Celtics Contributor | Nov 1 @ ORL | Nov 2 @ HOU | Nov 4 vs MIL | Nov 6 @ CHA | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum BOS · Points | 26.5 | 27.5 | 27.5 | 26.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Paul George BOS · Points | 18.5 | 17.5 | 21.5 | 17.5 | +2.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Derrick White BOS · Points | 13.5 | 14.5 | 17.5 | 13.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Payton Pritchard BOS · Points | 14.5 | 15.5 | 19.5 | 13.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Neemias Queta BOS · Points | 9.5 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | +2.0 | Trending Up ↑ |
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Jayson Tatum prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | CHI @ BOS | 3-Pointers Made | Under 3.5 (-133) · DraftKings | 3.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Tatum's attempt volume and ordinary shooting accuracy point toward a made-three total below the posted threshold.
Counter-Case: Tatum attempted ten threes in the latest completed game, so improved accuracy can defeat this position without a change in role. A close fourth quarter can keep the attempts coming instead of shortening his night.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |