01 · Fundamental Driver
Creation per minute
5.5 AST · 27.6 MIN — Suggs averaged 5.5 assists in 27.6 minutes last season. An expected 30-minute assignment provides room to reach five even after allowing for other creators to share the final pass.
Posted Line Trajectory: Opening CaptureSettled / Live Release · Full Dossier Unlocked
Jalen Suggs Assists Prop (Atlanta Hawks @ Orlando Magic, ): Fair Line 5.7 (-206) vs 4.5 Market
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
FanDuel: Over 4.5 (+102)Modeled Edge: +29.6% EV · Fair Value 5.7 (-206)
- Pick & Release Line
- OVER 4.5 (+102)
- FanDuel
- Modeled Fair Line
- 5.7
- 1.2 Pt Delta
- Modeled Fair Price
- -206
- +29.6% EV
- Posted Line Drift
- 4.5
- Last 1 Active Games
- Matchup (CT)
- ATL @ ORL
- NBA Props Lane CLV
- 73 / 11 / 36
- Beat / Tied / Lost
Sportsbook Posted Assists Line Trajectory (Last 1 Active Game)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (5.7 / -206)
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Jalen Suggs's assists line at 4.5 for ATL @ ORL (Oct 21). WagerBird's modeled fair line for ATL @ ORL is 5.7 (-206).
1-Game Posted Assists Ledger (Jalen Suggs)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ ORL | 4.5 (+102) | — | 5 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Insufficient History1-Game Window
Jalen Suggs Assists Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Insufficient 6-game box-score history to measure book step-lag.
Unpriced Book Step-Lag+0.5Max Single-Game Book Step: —
- Window Open Line
- 4.5
- Current Posted Line
- 4.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- 0.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 5.0
- Actual Output Delta
- +0.5
- Modeled Fair Value
- 5.7 (-206)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · vs ATL | 4.5 | — | 5 | +0.5 |
WagerBird Write-Up · Jalen Suggs Assists (Over 4.5)
Full Dossier UnlockedWrite-Up Thesis
Suggs’ established assist rate and available guard minutes create a path to five assists without a major offensive-role change.
02 · Fundamental Driver
Guard responsibility
30 MIN · BLACK OUT — Black’s right ankle sprain keeps him out of the rotation for this matchup. That leaves more guard work with Suggs and the remaining creators, supporting sustained initiation rather than requiring a sudden increase in shooting usage.
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
Foul trouble can shorten Suggs’ shift, while Wagner can turn an action Suggs initiates into an assist of his own. The slower-first-half script also leaves fewer early conversions if Orlando’s shooters start poorly.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JALEN SUGGS OVER 4.5 ASSISTS WITH AT LEAST FIVE ASSISTS · PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF.
WagerBird Nucleus Drift · Team Prop Signal
ATL @ ORL · Orlando Magic Points Nucleus Drift ()
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Orlando Magic's 5 primary contributors.
ORL Nucleus Drift5 of 5 Core Props Held FlatBalanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
| Orlando Magic Contributor | Nov 1 vs BOS | Nov 2 vs WAS | Nov 5 @ PHX | Nov 7 @ GSW | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paolo Banchero ORL · Points | — | — | — | — | 0.0 | — | Flat → |
| Franz Wagner ORL · Points | 21.5 | 24.5 | 23.5 | 24.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Desmond Bane ORL · Points | 19.5 | 21.5 | 20.5 | 19.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jalen Suggs ORL · Points | — | — | — | — | 0.0 | — | Flat → |
| Wendell Carter Jr. ORL · Points | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Orlando Magic (ORL)5 of 5 Core Props Held Flat
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Atlanta Hawks (ATL)5 of 5 Core Props Held Flat
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team dossiers.
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up
Jalen Suggs Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 1 Lost)
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Jalen Suggs prop write-up.
Jalen Suggs CLV Counts
0 Beat · 0 Tied · 1 Lost
1 Settled CLV Receipt| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | ATL @ ORL | Assists | Over 4.5 (-108) · FanDuel | 4.5 | 5 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Jalen Suggs Prop Write-Ups
Oct 21 CT · ATL @ ORL · AssistsFull Write-Up →
Suggs’ established assist rate and available guard minutes create a path to five assists without a major offensive-role change.
Counter-Case: Foul trouble can shorten Suggs’ shift, while Wagner can turn an action Suggs initiates into an assist of his own. The slower-first-half script also leaves fewer early conversions if Orlando’s shooters start poorly.
NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |