By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Dylan Harper's 3-pointers made line at 1.5 for OKC @ SAS (Oct 20). WagerBird's modeled fair line for OKC @ SAS is 1.1 (-232).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC @ SAS | 1.5 (+115) | — | 0 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Insufficient 6-game box-score history to measure book step-lag.
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · vs OKC | 1.5 | — | 0 | -1.5 |
Harper's larger starting role can increase his drives and creation without producing enough perimeter volume for two made threes.
0.9 3PM · 2.6 3PA · 69 G — Harper averaged 0.9 made threes on 2.6 attempts across 69 games last season. That perimeter workload leaves room for increased involvement without requiring repeated outside makes.
30 MIN · 3.3 3PA — Fox and Castle share the starting backcourt with Harper. His projected 30-minute shift can therefore grow through cuts, drives and secondary creation while leaving outside attempts at 3.3.
Oklahoma City can close Harper's driving lanes and leave him as the release shooter on repeated possessions. An early perimeter make can encourage additional attempts, turning a larger starting shift into a shooting-heavy night.
Settlement Rule: CASHES DYLAN HARPER FULL GAME THREES UNDER 1.5 WITH ZERO OR ONE MADE THREE; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across San Antonio Spurs's 5 primary contributors.
| San Antonio Spurs Contributor | Nov 2 vs UTA | Nov 4 vs DAL | Nov 6 @ SAC | Nov 7 @ POR | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama SAS · Points | 26.5 | 26.5 | 28.5 | 26.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Dylan Harper SAS · Points | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Stephon Castle SAS · Points | 16.5 | 15.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| De'Aaron Fox SAS · Points | 15.5 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 14.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Devin Vassell SAS · Points | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Dylan Harper prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | OKC @ SAS | 3-Pointers Made | Under 1.5 (-140) · FanDuel | 1.5 | 0 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Harper's larger starting role can increase his drives and creation without producing enough perimeter volume for two made threes.
Counter-Case: Oklahoma City can close Harper's driving lanes and leave him as the release shooter on repeated possessions. An early perimeter make can encourage additional attempts, turning a larger starting shift into a shooting-heavy night.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |