By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 4 active games (Oct 21 to Nov 6), sportsbooks adjusted Brayden Burries's posted assists line upward in 1 of 3 game-over-game steps from 1.5 to 2.5 (+1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for TOR @ MIL is 1.9 (-237).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL @ WAS | 1.5 (-130) | — | 0 | Under | |
| IND @ MIL(Missed 2g) | 2.5 (+130) | +1.0 | 1 | Under | |
| MIL @ BOS | 2.5 (-102) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| TOR @ MIL | 2.5 (+121) | 0.0 | 6 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (+1.0) tracks actual window production (+1.0).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · @ WAS | 1.5 | — | 0 | -1.5 |
| Oct 26 · vs IND | 2.5 | +1.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Nov 4 · @ BOS | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Nov 6 · vs TOR | 2.5 | 0.0 | 6 | +3.5 |
Burries' modest assist rate leaves room for a longer shift without requiring a lead-guard passing total.
1.3 AST · 17.3 MIN — Burries averaged 1.3 assists in 17.3 minutes in the season snapshot. That starting rate allows his court time to grow while his passing total remains modest. [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/mil/milwaukee-bucks)
22 MIN · 7 FGA — He started against Boston and played 22 minutes with 7 field-goal attempts and 3 assists. The extra court time supplied finishing opportunities as well as passing chances, so the longer shift does not by itself make him the main creator. [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore/_/gameId/401909924)
A larger starting assignment could put Burries on the ball more often. Transition chances and strong teammate shooting could produce three assists from a modest number of passes.
Settlement Rule: CASHES BRAYDEN BURRIES UNDER 2.5 ASSISTS WITH 0 TO 2; NO PUSH IS POSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Milwaukee Bucks's 5 primary contributors.
| Milwaukee Bucks Contributor | Oct 31 vs CLE | Nov 2 @ MIN | Nov 4 @ BOS | Nov 6 vs TOR | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro MIL · Points | 21.5 | 20.5 | 19.5 | 20.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIL · Points | 15.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 14.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Ryan Rollins MIL · Points | 14.5 | 13.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Myles Turner MIL · Points | 10.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Kyle Kuzma MIL · Points | 11.5 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ |
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
1 active Brayden Burries prop write-up tracked awaiting closing line settlement.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | TOR @ MIL | Assists | Under 2.5 (-155) · BetMGM | 2.5 | 6 | — | Read Write-Up → |
Burries' modest assist rate leaves room for a longer shift without requiring a lead-guard passing total.
Counter-Case: A larger starting assignment could put Burries on the ball more often. Transition chances and strong teammate shooting could produce three assists from a modest number of passes.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |