By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Anthony Edwards's assists line at 3.5 for MIN @ MIA (Oct 21). WagerBird's modeled fair line for MIN @ MIA is 3.0 (-183).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN @ MIA | 3.5 (+100) | — | 3 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Insufficient 6-game box-score history to measure book step-lag.
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · @ MIA | 3.5 | — | 3 | -0.5 |
Ball's initiation role lets Edwards concentrate on scoring rather than consistently supplying the final pass.
9 EDWARDS AST · 23 BALL AST IN PRESEASON SAMPLE — Edwards recorded nine assists in the official preseason sample while Ball recorded 23. The distribution supports an offense in which Edwards can attack after Ball creates the initial advantage.
35 MIN · 3.0 AST PROJECTED — The forecast retains a substantial starter workload for Edwards. The assist adjustment comes from his task within those minutes, rather than an expectation that he spends less time on the court.
Miami can send extra help toward Edwards and force him to release the ball to open teammates. A handful of converted cuts or spot-up shots can produce four assists despite a scoring-first assignment.
Settlement Rule: CASHES ANTHONY EDWARDS UNDER 3.5 ASSISTS WITH THREE OR FEWER; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Minnesota Timberwolves's 5 primary contributors.
| Minnesota Timberwolves Contributor | Oct 31 @ SAS | Nov 2 vs MIL | Nov 4 @ HOU | Nov 6 @ NOP | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards MIN · Points | — | — | — | — | -1.0 | — | Trending Down ↓ |
| LaMelo Ball MIN · Points | 19.5 | 20.5 | 19.5 | 21.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jaden McDaniels MIN · Points | 16.5 | 17.5 | 16.5 | 17.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Ayo Dosunmu MIN · Points | 14.5 | 17.5 | 15.5 | 18.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Jonathan Kuminga MIN · Points | 13.5 | 16.5 | 13.5 | 14.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
0 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Anthony Edwards prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | MIN @ MIA | Assists | Under 3.5 (-118) · DraftKings | 3.5 | 3 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
Ball's initiation role lets Edwards concentrate on scoring rather than consistently supplying the final pass.
Counter-Case: Miami can send extra help toward Edwards and force him to release the ball to open teammates. A handful of converted cuts or spot-up shots can produce four assists despite a scoring-first assignment.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |